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Yesterday data on US Durable Goods Orders in July was weak. Durable Goods Orders dropped 7.3% vs. estimates for -3.0% and revised downwardly June’s figures from 4.2% to 3.9%. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation fell 0.6% vs. forecast for a 0.6% growth. However, the US dollar was bought against news releases. Amid the news the stock market started decline. Primary dealers plan the decrease in the Feds purchases from $85 billion a month to $70 billion.
Nevertheless, on Wednesday, data on US pending Home Sales in July (18:00 UTC+4) is expected to rise from -0.4% up to 0.2%. On Thursday, the major economic event is US GDP in the second quarter in the second reading; forecast 2.3% vs. 1.7% in the first reading. Thus, there is little time until the Fed’s meeting and one may move into dollar until the major figures are revealed.
Today at 12:00 UTC+4 Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany in August, forecast 107.1 vs. 106.2. Taking into account that ZEW indices were published 2 weeks ago and it was strong, today’s data may not influence the market. In the US data on House prices and Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index is revealed. There will be enough one negative piece of news, this time Consumer Confidence in August (79.6 vs. 80.3) to continue decline.
When the yesterday’s low 1.3358 is broken we expect drop to the range 1.3312/22, consolidation under it opens the next target 1.3290, support of lilac price channel on the H4.
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