26.09.201311:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for September 26, 2013

Yesterday, during the European session the euro grew 60 points, though GfK Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany in October was in line with the forecast, 7.1. Probably, after weak PMI indices, the data which was in line with the forecast is considered to be strong. In the US data on Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation in August was surprising; it dropped 0.1% vs. forecast for a 1.1% growth. However, Durable Goods Orders were better; 0.1% vs. expectations for 0.0% and -7.4% in July. Data on New Home Sales in the UK in August was in line with the forecast, 421K vs. revised downwardly figures from July, 390K. S&P 500 dropped 0.26%, the euro grew 53 points. Tension amid the increase of budget ceiling rises. There are rumors that if the US Congress does not raise budget ceiling, Obama will raise it using his own decision. We assume that misbalance between the euro and the stock indices is temporary; the euro will follow the stock market.

Today the major event is US GDP in the second quarter (at 16:30 UTC+4). It is expected to be revised upwardly from 2.5% to 2.7%. At 18:00 UTC +4 data on US Pending Home Sales in August is published; forecast -0.9% vs. -1.3% in July.

Amid data on the US we expect the drop of the price to the point of interjection of trend lines on the H4, 1.3465. When the price consolidates under the level, the 1.3420 target opens, then 1.3387. If the scenario is negative, when the rate consolidates above the testing level 1.3537, we expect the growth to 1.3570.