29.10.201311:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental review for October 29, 2013

On Monday data on US Industrial production in September surpassed the expectations and the US dollar strengthened. US Capacity Utilization was 78.3% vs. forecast for 78.1% and August’s figure was revised upwardly from 77.8 to 77.9%. US Industrial Production rose 0.6% vs. forecast for 0.5% and 0.4% in August. The euro fell 23 points, the pound sterling dropped 27 points, which was helped by weak data on Retail Sales in October (2 vs. 34 in September). Data on US Pending Home Sales in September dropped 5.6% vs. decline for a 1.6% in August (a 0.5% growth was forecast). The stocks of house building companies lost about 1%.

Yesterday the US Treasury held an auction on 2-year yields for $32 billion; today 5-year yields for $35 billion are placed, and tomorrow, 7-year yields for $29 billion. It totals for $96 billion. There are no doubts, the demand on such a volume boosts purchases of the US dollar.

Today strong data on US is also expected. US Retail Sales in September (16:30 UTC+4) is expected to grow 0.25%-0.3% vs. 0.2% in August. Retail sales excluding auto is estimated to be 0.4% vs. 0.1% in August. At 16:30 UTC+4 PPI is revealed, it is forecast to 0.2% vs. 0.3% in August; Core PPI is expected to be 0.1% vs. 0.0%. At 17:00 UTC+4 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index in August is published; it is forecast to be flat, 12.4%.

Bearish targets for the euro: 1.3740, 1.3670/80, and 1.3650.

Bearish targets for the pound: 1.6040/55, 1.5955, and 1.5880-1.5900. 

USD/JPY.

Since October 23 the situation on the pair has not changed. The price has marked the graphical support at the level of 96.90 and reversed to the previous positions. We assume the branch starts; it will move off the graphical triangle to the upside. Yesterday Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Kikuo Iwata said that the bank will buy bonds till the inflation does not reach the level of 2%. Japan starts buying US bonds, which increases demand on the US dollars.

Today data on Retail sales in Japan in September was published; the growth was 3.1% vs. forecast for 1.9% and 1.1% in August. However, the Japan’s stock market index Nikkei225 for the first three trading hours does not move due to yesterday’s neutral situation on the US stock market, which suppresses the growth of the yen. It is obvious that the market is waiting for the outcomes of the Fed’s meeting scheduled for tomorrow.

Targets for growth: 98.47, 99.05, and 99.95.