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Trading plan for 01/11/2017:
A quiet overnight trading session in Asia with most of the majors trading inside of the range. EUR/USD is at 1.1651, GBP/USD breaks to 1.3307 and USD/CAD is 1.2881. On the commodity market, Crude Oil has extended gains to $54.96, Gold is trading a little higher as well, currently at $1,275. New all-time highs on Bitcoin at $6,436.
On Wednesday 1st of November, the event calendar is busy with important news releases, especially during the NY session. Only one important data are scheduled for release in the early London session, its PMI Manufacturing data from the UK. Later on, the US will take control and post the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, ISM Manufacturing PMI data and at the end of the day, Fed will issue the interest rate decision and statement. Some important speeches are scheduled as well from BOE Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation Sam Woods, BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe, SNB Vice Chairman of the Governing Board Fritz Zurbrugg and BOC Governor Stephen Poloz.
EUR/USD analysis for 01/11/2017:
The main event of the day is FOMC interest rate decision and rate statement that is scheduled for release at 06:00 pm GMT. The market participants expect FOMC to leave the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.25%. Financial markets remain skeptical over the Federal Reserve's predictions for the path of monetary policy. Uncertainty over who will lead the Fed, low inflation and some concerns about a potential government shutdown in December goes some way to explaining this. However, with Fed officials broadening out the factors justifying tighter monetary policy, such as financial stability and financial conditions, and with growth looking strong and inflation edging higher, a December rate hike looks probable. In today's statement, the most important clues regarding the next interest rate hike might be found in areas like growth comments, job market situation, inflationary pressures, and fiscal policy.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still locked in a narrow trading range between the levels of 1.1574 - 1.1662. So far the bulls were unable to break out above the technical resistance as the momentum indicator is still below its fifty level. Nevertheless, in a case of a breakout higher, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1715 and only a clear and sustained violation of this level would change the bias from bearish to bullish. Please notice that there is still a Head and Shoulders pattern in play at the higher time frame.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil rally continues
The price of Crude Oil has rallied higher towards the daily technical resistance zone located between the levels of $54.96 - $55.26. The market conditions are overbought and there is a clear and visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, which indicates a possible downside correction. The next technical support is seen at the level of $54.45 and $53.73.
Market Snapshot: DAX at new all-time highs
The price of German DAX index is trading at the level of 13,370, which is new all-time high at the time of writing. Nevertheless, the market conditions on H4 and Daily time frame are extremely overbought and there is some unfilled gap along the way up. The corrective cycle might start anytime soon.
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