02.07.201808:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 2, 2018

Análisis a largo plazo

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EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently after bouncing off the 1.1550 area with a daily close, but currently, certain bearish pressure is trying to push it lower again. Due to the recent Trade War situation, certain volatility and correction are quite in line with expectations, but a break below 1.1550 will lead to certainty for the upcoming bearish momentum in the pair.

Today, EUR slipped back of its impulsive bullish pressure as German Chancellor Angela Merkel was dealt a fresh blow when her interior minister offered to quit in an escalating row over migration policy. Moreover, today a series of economic reports are yet to be published including Italian Manufacturing PMI report which is expected to decrease slightly to 52.6 from the previous figure of 52.7, French Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 53.1, German Final Manufacturing PMI is also expected to be unchanged at 55.9 as well as EUR Final Manufacturing PMI report is expected to remain unchanged at 55.0. Additionally, EUR Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 8.5%, but PPI report is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%.

On the USD side, ahead of the NFP report this week which is expected to be quite dovish with the result, today USD Final Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 54.6, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 58.2 from the previous figure of 58.7, Construction Spending is expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 1.8% and ISM Manufacturing Prices is also expected to decrease to 74.3 from the previous figure of 79.5.

As of the current scenario, both EUR and USD are quite indecisive with the upcoming economic reports which lead to further confusion in the market. Though USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR as of the recent Rate Hike and upcoming policies promising development, whereas EUR failed to provide such assurance to the market participants. To sum up, the USD pressure is expected to continue further.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of dynamic level of 20 EMA below the resistance area of 1.1700-50, which is expected to push the price again towards the 1.1550 area in the coming days. Later, if the price breaks below 1.1550 with a daily close, the upcoming target would be the 1.13 support area. As the price remains below 1.1750 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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