27.09.201808:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 27/09/2018

Análisis a largo plazo

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The New Zealand Reserve Bank left the main OCR rate at 1.75%, and did not change its approach to its monetary policy. However, the global investors have learned some details about the future movements of the central bank.

RBNZ expects that the interest rate will not be changed until 2020 inclusive. Both the increase and the reduction are now just as likely. Employment is around the optimal level. Consumer inflation remains below 2% and should continue to be supported by loose monetary policy.

Forecasts regarding the interest rate path assume that the economic growth rate will increase next year, which will also support inflation. Demand for exports of domestic goods has improved due to strong global economic growth and the weak USD exchange rate of New Zealand. Trade tension is currently the greatest risk for the global economy.

On a national scale, GDP growth is to be supported by expenses and investments of both the government and households. The first signs of inflation increase are already appearing. In the near future, there may be a temporary increase in prices caused by more expensive crude oil.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Markets have interpreted the decision of the RBNZ as neutral. The reaction of NZD/USD is only negligible. Immediately after the announcement of the decision, there was an increase, but soon the price returned to the starting point. Currently, the price is approaching the technical support at the level of 0.6631. Any violation of this level would extend the drops towards the next supports seen at 0.6627 and 0.6620. The weak and negative momentum indicator supports the short-term bearish outllok.

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