03.10.201808:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 03/10/2018

Análisis a largo plazo

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Financial markets are still focusing on Italy, although today the reports are positive. Valuation of EUR and other currencies from Europe are improving. The stock market, however, maintains declines. Crude oil is holding fast.

In the morning the EUR jumped after information from Corriere della Sera, according to which Italy will commit to lowering the deficit to 2.0 % GDP by 2021, instead of upholding the deficit at 2.4%. The decision is dictated by criticism from the EU. The draft budget assumes 2.4% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020. Information weakens worries around Europe, which also helps SEK, NOK and GBP. GBP / USD returned over 1.30. But USD / JPY is still struggling to maintain over 113,60 / 70 support. The Nikkei225 is disturbing in this move because it is falling 0.7% today.

On Wednesday, the 3rd of October 2018, the event calendar is quite busy in important data releases, as there are PMI Services and Composite PMI data to be released from across the Eurozone (Germany, France, Spain, Italy) and the UK. Moreover, during the US session, the US will post ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, ISM Non-Manufacturing data, Final Services PMI, Composite PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories data. Moreover, there are some spechees scheduled from the FOMC members like Lael Brainard, Charles Evans, Loretta Mester, and Jerome Powell.

AUD/USD analysis for 10/03/2018:

Home building permits in Australia in August fell by 9.4% m / m, totally surprising forecasts set at 1.0 percent. The annual dynamics decreased to -13.6% from 5.4%. The data is relatively old, which reduces the significance for AUD, but points to the problems of the real estate market.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The market is clearly locked between two main levels now: the technical resistance at the level of 0.7195 and the technical support at the level of 0.7160. The trend at this time frame is horizontal to bearish, but at the larget time frames, the trend remains clearly bearish, and this is why another spike to the downside is being expected aftet the corrective pull-back is finished.

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