04.03.201906:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 4, 2019

Análisis a largo plazo

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Ahead of the ECB Press Conference and main refinancing rate decision this week, EUR is currently quite weak against USD but any positive outcome in the nearest days may encourage EUR gains.

The eurozone is facing an economic slowdown which has been confirmed by official economic data. So, the ECB is widely expected to maintain the key interest rate at the record low levels. On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a closely watched press conference after the policy meeting. The main refinancing rate is likely to be held unchanged at 0.00%. At the press conference, the ECB is due to unveil the updated forecast. In case of positive and optimistic economic projections, EUR could gain ground in response.

Today Spanish Unemployment Change report is going to be published which is expected to have a significant positive result of decreasing to 5.0k from the previous figure of 83.5k, SENTIX Investor Confidence is expected to increase to -3.1 from the previous figure of -3.7, and the eurozone's PPI is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of -0.8%.

On the other hand, the US-China trade deal is expected to be finalized by March 27. If the deal is actually concluded, USD could respond with impulsive gains. This week the Federal Budget Balance is going to be published which is expected to increase to 6.2B from the previous figure of -13.5B. On Friday, the US Labor Department is due to release NFP. The report is likely to show mixed readings which can lead to certain indecision in the market sentiment. Moreover, FED Chairman Jeromy Powell is going to speak on Friday about the monetary policy normalization. Today US Construction Spending report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.8%. Though it is expected to be bearish for USD, any positive outcome may lead to certain gains.

Meanwhile, EUR finds support from the upcoming economic reports as anaysts hope for positive readings. Market indecision on USD may lead to certain weakness in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as 1.1300 area after an impulsive bullish momentum following a bearish false breakout. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as the 1.1300 support area, the bullish momentum is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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