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EUR/USD is trading in an impulsive bearish manner. The price broke below 1.1200 with a daily close. Thie week, traders are anticipating two major events: a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve and US nonfarm payrolls. That's why the pair is set to trade with higher volatility in the coming days.
Today the eurozone presented mixed economic reports. As a result, EUR is trading in the green for a while, though EUR's gains are likely to be short-lived. The eurozone's M3 Money Supply report was published with an increase to 4.5% from the previous value of 4.3% which was expected to decline to 4.2% and Private Loans decreased to 3.2% while experts projected a flat reading of 3.3%.
The eurozone is struggling with an economic slowdown which has been proved by economic data. So, WYE is expected to extend weakness if upcoming ECB events and reports do not meet expectations. This week the economic calendar contains a series of reports on the eurozone's economy which are unlikely to support EUR gains over USD.
On the USD side, on Friday the US reported much stronger than expected GDP expansion according to flash estimates. The US GDP surged 3.2% in Q1 2019, much better than the forecast for a flat print of 2.2%. So, USD is expected to hold the upper hand over EUR in the coming days. The Federal Reserve is to conclude its two day meeting on Wednesday amid expectations that interest rates will remain on hold. At its March meeting the Fed indicated that it would refrain from raising rates for the rest of the year citing a slower pace of economic growth. The meeting is holding after Friday's data proved that growth the US economy unexpectedly accelerated in the first quarter. However, the expansion was boosted by gains in trade and inventories which may unwind.
This week on Friday, nonfarm payrolls report for April tops the list of macroeconomic reports. Economists expect the US private sector to add 181k jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.8%. The US economy created 196k jobs in March, rebounding after just 33k jobs in the previous month. A new round of the China-U.S. trade talks is due get under way on Wednesday with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer travelling to Beijing. The next round of meetings is scheduled for the following week in Washington.
To sum it up, any positive reading of the US economic reports and events this week will encourage further USD gains over EUR. Alternatively, any worse result will weaken the US currency and lead to certain correction and indecision in the pair.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price gained bullish momentum recently after the impulsive break below 1.1200 which is expected to be retested with a pullback before the bearish pressure reinforces in the coming days with a target towards 1.1050 support area. As the price remains below 1.1300 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
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