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GBP/USD has been trading under impulsive non-volatile bearish pressure. The price managed to push below 1.2350 support area with a daily close recently. Ahead of the Fed's policy update today, impulsive USD gains may be engulfed by the dovish policy statement of the Federal Reserve which will shed light on further monetary easing.
The Bank of England is due to release an inflation report. Besides, the official policy rate of the Bank of England is likely to remain unchanged at 0.75%. In this context, GBP has a chance to rebound against USD briefly as the Fed's rate cut may affect USD gains. A deep GBP slump will prompt the UK government to review its approach to leaving the European Union without a divorce deal. According to some sources, a plunge of about 10% in sterling in a short span of time may cause Prime Minister Boris Johnson's cabinet to refrain from pursuing a no-deal Brexit. GBP sank 4% in July. To make things worse, it is on track for the biggest monthly drop since October 2016, when the currency plunged in a one-minute flash crash.
Recently UK M4 Money Supply report was published with an increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.1% which failed to meet the expectation of 0.2%, Mortgage Approvals remained unchanged at 66k, and Net Lending to Individuals grew to 4.8B from the previous figure of 3.8B which was expected to be at 4.4B. Tomorrow, after the Bank Rate report and Inflation report, the UK Asset Purchase Facility is expected to be unchanged at 435B and Bank of England's Governor Carney is due to speak about the upcoming economic plans. His speech is expected to have a strong impact on the upcoming price momentum.
On the other hand, the market has already priced in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. So, investors will be looking for clues as to whether the central bank would leave the door open for further policy easing in a bid to insulate the world's largest economy from slowing global growth and the fallout of trade conflicts. The widely expected quarter-percentage-point lowering of borrowing costs is unlikely to discourage US President Donald Trump to continue attacks on the central bank to ease monetary policy. Fed officials hope that a modest rate cut will lower the odds of a recession, help to boost inflation at home and offset risks from slowing growth abroad and rising tensions with trading partners like China. Uncertainty toward the scope of additional action leaves markets more sensitive to signals of future policy measures than the well-telegraphed rate cut. Policymakers would be wise to take advantage of recent upbeat economic data to outline the parameters for a modest revision of rates.
Today US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 150k from the previous figure of 102k and Employment Cost Index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%. Tomorrow NFP is expected to have a downbeat result with a decrease to 163k from the previous figure of 224k.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price moved impulsively with non-volatile trend momentum towards 1.2100 support area which formed Bullish Divergence along the way. The price is expected to climb towards 1.2500 in response to a long-awaited rate cut by the US central bank. As the price remains below 1.2500 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue but certain volatility and bullish counter momentum below 1.2500 will not worry the bears.
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