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AUD/USD is trading in the green and is fighting hard to stay above an important uptrend line. We'll see what will happen because a USDX's rally could send AUD/USD in the seller's territory soon.
The pair is located within an up channel, so the outlook is still bullish, but AUD/USD has shown some exhaustion signs after the last amazing upside movement. I believe that another lower low will suggest selling in the short term.
The US Building Permits could increase to 1.23M, while the Housing Starts could jump from 0.89M to 1.10M, so the USD could resume its short-term appreciation versus its rivals if the US data continues to come in above market expectations.
AUD/USD is pressuring the uptrend line, ascending channel support, a valid breakdown will bring a selling opportunity on this pair. I've said in a previous analysis that AUD/USD could reverse, could drop, after the false breakout above the 0.7031 static resistance.
I've drawn an orange descending pitchfork, hoping that I'll catch a downside movement, AUD/USD has registered a false breakout above the upper median line (UML), confirming the descending pitchfork.
Still, it is to soon to talk about a corrective phase as long as the price is traded within the ascending channel's body and above the inside sliding line (SL) of the descending pitchfork. AUD/USD has registered a false breakdown below these obstacles, so we need strong confirmation before we consider going long.
A corrective phase could be confirmed only if the price makes a new lower low, AUD/USD will drop and close below the 0.6776. Actually, a breakdown below the 23.6% and stabilization below the inside sliding line (SL) will unleash a sell-off.
Buy if AUD/USD will make another higher, after a valid breakout above 0.7031, and if the pair remains within the up channel's body. The major upside target remains at the ascending channel's upside line.
Sell AUD/USD if the price drops and stabilizes below the 0.6776 former low. A valid breakdown below the 23.6% will really confirm a corrective phase. The 38.2% retracement level could be used as a first downside target.
Yesterday's candle, when AUD/USD has failed to retest the upper median line (UML), or to close near this dynamic resistance has signaled that the bears are strong on the short term. We have a minor channel between the sliding line (SL) and the upper median line (UML), so a downside breakdown from this minor descending channel will accelerate the sell-off.
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