13.02.201914:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: In the medium term, the position of the dollar may falter - Citi

Análisis a largo plazo

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Citigroup financial conglomerate experts believe that over the next three months, the dollar will be relatively stable, and then decline by 3-4%.

"Fundamental factors that support the demand for the American currency are weakening. The positive impact that financial incentives have on the US economy is likely to fade away. In addition, it is possible that long-term rates have already reached their peak," analysts said.

They believe that the yield curve of US state bonds will become more and more flat, which is why the greenback will be under pressure.

"It is assumed that in the medium term, the reduction of the yield differentials and the difference in the rates of the Fed and other central banks will start to play against the dollar. According to our estimates, over the next three months, the dollar exchange rate in relation to G10 competitors will remain almost unchanged, and in the next 6-12 months, it will fall by 3-4%," representatives of Citi said.

At the same time, they admit that in case of a sharp decline in risk appetite, the US currency is likely to regain the status of a defensive asset, which will support its course.

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