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UBS Global Wealth Management experts believe that whoever replaces Mario Draghi as the ECB president will cause a rise in the euro. Moreover, if some candidates are appointed to this position, a rally of the single European currency may follow.
"Any replacement of the current chairman of the ECB, whose eight-year term of office expires in October, is likely to be regarded as hawkish," analysts say.
"Under M. Draghi, the regulator lowered interest rates to negative values, launched an inconsistent quantitative easing program to fight deflation, and kept the promise to do "everything that is needed" to save the euro," they added.
Since M. Draghi took office in November 2011, the single European currency has lost about 18% in weight.
"Anyone who replaces M. Draghi will probably find it difficult at first to convince the market that it is as strong and devoted as its predecessor. We think that market participants, in case of doubt, would prefer to buy rather than sell the euro, "said UBS representatives.
Whoever becomes the successor to the current head of the ECB, his candidacy will be determined depending on how the leading posts in the EU are distributed after the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in late May.
UBS believes that the representatives of Germany and France - Jens Weidmann and Francois Villeroy de Galhau - have a good chance of being appointed as the ECB president. Possible candidates also include Finnish representatives Erkki Liikanen and Olli Rehn.
"The growth of the euro is likely to be more sustainable if J. Weidmann or O. Rehn is chosen, since they are more conservative than other candidates who can cause a rally of the single European currency only at the initial stage. Although the ECB decision making is usually based on consensus, the personality and character of the president matter, and we should not underestimate the influence that M. Draghi had on the euro during his term of office," the experts said.
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