10.05.201912:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Markets are hoping for a bargain, despite rising tariffs in the US

Análisis a largo plazo

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Chinese stocks fell in price, and the yuan strengthened, as investors believe that Beijing and Washington will be able to save a bargain, despite rising tariffs in the United States, which sharply aggravated relations. Traders also expect Beijing to announce tighter monetary policies and support measures if the US decision adds pressure to the Chinese economy.

"The fact that both sides agreed to continue negotiations on Friday gives us hope that relations between the two powers have not deteriorated and are to be restored," said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. China's major stock indexes finished trading growth of more than 3%, recovering sharply after the fall, when the new tariffs came into force. There is a version that the reason for the escalation of the conflict between the United States and China was the data showing that China's economy has begun to show signs of stabilization due to the flow of growth-stimulating measures. The market had several days to consider this scenario, and it partially took into account the increase in tariffs from 10 to 25 percent. Given that negotiations are continuing, all attention is focused on the question, will there be positive news at the weekend, after the talks in Washington? In addition, China is likely to have some incentives in the event of a failure of negotiations.

The Chinese yuan ended the trading session with an increase of 0.2%, to 6.8118 yuan per dollar, but still lost 1.13% over the week. On Thursday, the currency broke through the key level of support at 6.8 for the first time since the end of January. On Friday, the yuan strengthened, despite the fact that the Central Bank of China set the average daily trading bar at its weakest level in 3.5 months. Offshore yuan was a volatile day. In general, while negotiations continue, there is hope. As for the yuan, the recovery will not be sustainable: most likely, the yuan will be in the range of 6.75 to 6.9 yuan per dollar.

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