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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -99.2453
The minimum correction of the EUR/USD pair ended near the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1.1169. It can already be noted that the indicator Heiken Ashi has turned down, which means the bears are ready for new sales of the euro. Thus, the short-term trend on the 4-hour timeframe is not too strong yet, and the euro, as we noted earlier, is likely to fall to the Murray level of "-2/8" - 1.1108. In fundamental terms, the currency market is now completely calm. In principle, this is noticeable even at the minimum volatility of the euro/dollar pair in recent days. Today, neither the European Union nor America will again have an important macroeconomic publication. Thus, traders can only rely on technical factors that clearly point down when making trading decisions. Donald Trump, who was recently the main newsmaker, turned his attention to Iran, so there is no new information on the topic of trade wars at the moment either. The bottom line is that we have a confident and moderate increase in the US dollar, which Trump most likely wants to influence exclusively through the Fed's monetary policy, on which he has no influence. Accordingly, there will be new attempts to put pressure on Jerome Powell to reduce the key rate.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1108
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1169
R2 – 1.1230
R3 – 1.1292
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to move down and overcome the level of 1.1169. Thus, the sell orders remain relevant with the target of 1.1108 until the new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.
It is recommended to consider short positions on the euro/dollar pair very carefully and with small lots not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line with the first target of 1.1230.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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