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By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed volatility close to the average daily one, having as a result the structure of a long-awaited correction. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the support level of 1.2620, where the quotation had previously arrived, held out, and the long-awaited correction came to the market. Considering the general plan, we see that the quotation for a long time had a tireless downward interest in itself, flying more than 550 points, whether short positions overheated, of course, within three weeks of a downward course, there was not a single correction and significant pullback. The key event of the past week in terms of the information background is the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, who said she would leave the post of leader of the Conservative Party on June 7. The market reacted to this news - thoughtlessly positive, and the pound was growing in price. What is good and bad, in principle, is nothing. The new leader, who will be elected soon (and there are five such candidates - Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt), falls into Brexit's intricate grid, and if there is no way out without a deal - that is, of course, the question. For this reason, I called the past movement in the direction of the pound rash, because desires, fantasies about the best, can lead to even worse consequences. Returning to the date of Theresa May's resignation, the suggestion is that she was chosen for a reason and she may be associated with the upcoming visit (June 5-6) of the US President Donald Trump. However, that will change nothing.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have a day off in the United States (Memorial Day) and the UK (Spring Bank Holiday). Thus, trading volumes can be reduced.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote is in the active correction phase, currently already having a rebound of more than 120 points from the pivot point. It is likely to assume that the quotation is aimed at the level of 1.2770, where the price has repeatedly interacted with the level. In the case of a rapprochement with the set coordinates, there may be a slowdown and subsequent understanding, which will lead to the restoration of short positions in the market.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Buy positions are considered from the value of 1.2700. Thus, deals are already in place with the prospect of 1.2770
- Sell positions are considered in the case of a slowdown in the range of 1.2770, where, in the case of level testing, the stench can return to the current support level of 1.2620.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short term are set in a neutral plan. Meanwhile, intraday perspective due to the correctional phase was replaced by an upward interest. The medium-term perspective, on the other hand, maintains a downward interest on the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 27 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 36 points. It is likely to assume that due to reduced trading volumes, due to holidays in the United States and Britain, volatility can also be reduced.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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