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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.
CCI: 116.9452
Yesterday was very favorable for the EUR/USD. Traders continued rather cautious purchases of the euro, although there were grounds for new sales of the European currency. Inflation in the eurozone in May slowed to 1.2% y/y, which is a very low value and far from the target of 2.0%. Already at this point a week ago, the bears would have gladly rushed into battle and began to sell the euro/dollar pair. However, this did not happen yesterday, and in our view, this is a very significant moment. It is when the markets stop responding to the news in a logical way, we can assume a change in the direction of the trend. Jerome Powell in the course of his evening speech drove the market into a stupor even more. Powell once again showed concern over the trade wars between the States and its major trading partners and said that "the Fed is on the pulse" and is ready at any time to begin to stimulate the economy, if necessary. This, of course, is not an announcement of a new incentive program or a reduction in the key rate, but the head of the Fed admits such a development that causes the market to doubt the feasibility of further investment in the US dollar. And this is the second point that leads us to the conclusion about the change of the downward trend to the upward trend. On Wednesday, June 5, the States and the European Union will publish the indices of business activity in the services sector and complex in the production sector. The EU will also release a report on retail sales, and in the States – ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector. There is every reason to expect that most of the reports will be below the forecast values, but what kind of market reaction will follow?
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1230
S2 – 1.1200
S3 – 1.1169
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1261
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1322
Trading recommendations:
The currency pair EUR/USD continues its recoilless upward movement. Therefore, it is recommended to continue to trade long positions with targets at 1.1292 to and 1.1322 until the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi down.
It is recommended to buy the US dollar after the bears return the initiative to their hands and there will be a consolidation of the euro/dollar pair under the moving average line with the first targets at 1.1169 and 1.1139.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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