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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.
CCI: 39.7644
The package of macroeconomic statistics from the US yesterday was very controversial. On the one hand, the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector absolutely failed. On the other hand, a strong index of business activity in the service sector ISM eventually supported the US dollar. Unfortunately, we believe that US reports will continue to frustrate traders. For example, a weak report on NonFarm Payrolls in the near future. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Today, we are waiting for an equally important event in the form of an announcement of the ECB meeting results and press conference of Mario Draghi. Today, we believe that the US currency can continue to return the previously lost positions against the euro, as the head of the ECB has even fewer reasons for optimism than Jerome Powell. It is unlikely that Mario Draghi will ignore the topic of the same trade wars between the US and trading partners, it is unlikely that Draghi will be able to ignore the weakest inflation in May, it is unlikely that Draghi will "forget" about the previously announced program of long-term lending to TLTRO banks. All these are bearish factors for the euro/dollar pair. Thus, the best that the euro can expect today is a neutral statement by Draghi without accents on the weaknesses and dangers for the European economy. But the chances of this are few. Thus, any "dovish rhetoric" can renew traders' interest in the sales of the EUR/USD pair. From a technical point of view, the downward correction to the moving average continues. Overcoming the moving average line will change the current downward trend.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1230
S2 – 1.1200
S3 – 1.1169
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1261
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1322
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair started to adjust. Formally, long positions on the euro with the targets at 1.1261 and 1.1292 remain relevant, but they can be opened only after the turn of Heiken Ashi up and with extreme caution, as Draghi's daily performance can have a strong impact on the market.
It is recommended to sell the euro after the bears return the initiative to their hands and the euro/dollar pair will consolidate under the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1169 and 1.1139.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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