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On Friday evening, Mexico and the United States managed to very quickly agree on migration and trade, therefore, according to Donald Trump, the United States will not impose duties on Mexican goods, which was scheduled for today. This is good news for the dollar. But the bad news was the labor data. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Employment Change) in May amounted to only 75 thousand against an expectation of 177-185 thousand, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% in April, the average hourly wage increased by 0.2% against an expectation of 0.3%.
Actually, the data itself cannot be called bad, we have already paid attention to the simple connection of the unemployment rate with nonfarms - with unemployment at 3.6%, the historical rate of monthly employment (namely in the public sector) is about 15-85 thousand people. Indeed, earlier unemployment was considered by other rules, and the current 3.6% may well correspond to 4.1% of 30 years ago, but this level is quite acceptable.
The euro closed the day with an increase of 58 points, slightly reaching the upper shadow of the Fibonacci level of 76.4%. It can be assumed that the goal has been reached. Something that we were somewhat afraid of in the last review has occured - a double divergence formed with the Marlin oscillator on a four-hour scale. We also said that growth, in the event of disappointing US data, may continue for several days. However, double divergence growth may stop today. It is also noteworthy that the growth occurred on smaller volumes than on Thursday. The reversal is our main scenario. The immediate goal is 1.1255.
But while it is not there, the danger of further improvement has not disappeared. Consolidating the price above the Fibonacci level of 76.4% will encourage the euro to move to the level of 61.8% on the price of 1.4444. On the weekly scale chart, the MACD line is moving here.
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