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By the end of last week, the Euro / Dollar currency pair again showed high volatility of 96 points, drawing pulse candles on the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a breakdown of the range level of 1.1300, with the price movement to the value of 1.1347, an upward trend has come. Considering the trading schedule in general terms, we see that the resistance level of 1.1300, which has been holding us for a long time, has fallen under the pressure of the news background, having a total of more than 180 points per week. The clock frequency has fallen a long time ago, and if we open the daily chart, we will see that there is a sketch of another plan, "Ascending - Sideways," but it's too early to draw such conclusions, because you need to understand how the quote will conduct itself now, after rolling back, and find whether it supports in the area of 1.1300-1.1265, for drawing a further upward movement.
The news background of last week was rather broad, but we would focus on Friday, where the report of the United States Department of Labor was published. Everyone waits for the NonFarm data, especially after such a devastating ADP report, only 75 thousand new jobs were created compared to the previous period with 224 thousand. On top of everything, the average hourly wage decreased from 3 compared to the same period last year: 2% to 3.1%. You have already seen the result on the chart, after the publication of the report, the euro flew away, despite the fact that there was an overbought characteristic and holding positions in the 1.1300 level. Everything was in the background. Finally, I would like to say a few words about our beloved Brexit. On Friday, Prime Minister Theresa May safely left her post, of course until she continues to fulfill her duties to the successor. This process can take several weeks. In turn, the key candidate for the prime minister's place, Boris Johnson, having heard a lot about Donald Trump, said that Britain would not pay the EU $ 50 billion without an acceptable Brexit deal. Another candidate for the premiership, the current head of the British Foreign Office, Jeremy Hunt, said that after speaking with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, during the recent celebrations dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, the EU was ready to discuss a package of issues at the talks forming Brexit agreement. And here, we remember the famous phrase of the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, that the current agreement is the best option and there will be no revision.
Today, Germany celebrates the national holiday "Spirit Day", thus Europe, to put it bluntly, is not active. In the afternoon, there will be data on the number of open vacancies in the JOLTS labor market in April in the USA, where they expect a decline from 7.488M to 7.240M.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a rather active recovery from the recent rally, where the quotation has already gone below the level of 1.1300. It is likely to assume that the recovery process will continue in the direction of the value of 1.1265, an earlier mid-term outset (upper limit), but later we will see, thereby analyzing the fixation points.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Positions for the purchase will be considered on the situation in the case of a slowdown and the resumption of the upward course.
- Sell positions are considered lower than 1.1290, with a primary perspective of 1.1265.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short-term perspective have changed their interest from ascending to descending against the background of recovery. Intraday and mid-term perspectives maintain an upward interest against the background of jumps.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 10 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 36 points. Against the background of recovery, we can see volatility close to the daily average.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1180; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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