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On Tuesday, the pound sterling failed to consolidate below the target level of 1.2530, which created a convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart, which creates an increased probability of price growth to the previous target level of 1.2610.
But the daily marlin signal line might go below the pink line of the technical line, and in this case the convergence is easily converted into a trend decline of the indicator.
The basis for this scenario might be due to the expected weak UK inflation readings in May that will be published today. The base CPI is predicted to decrease from 1.8% y/y to 1.6% y/y, the total CPI may drop from 2.1% y/y to 2.0% y/y. The retail price index is expected to be 2.9% y/y compared to 3.0% y/y earlier, rising prices for residential real estate are projected to slow from 1.4% y/y to 1.1% y/y. In addition, the balance of production orders for June is expected to deteriorate from -10 to -11.
No less important is today's Fed meeting. In case investors get disappointed, for those who are expecting to hear about three rate cuts this year, but have received information about only one reduction, the British pound may also be subject to being sold.
The option of consolidating the price below 1.2530 and the pound's further decrease to 1.2350 is taken by us as the main one.
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