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By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed volatility equal to the average daily 83 points. As a result of which, it maintained a downward interest in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after strengthening from a periodic level of 1.2500, the regrouping of trading forces reached a limit, resulting in a barrage of short positions, which nevertheless, overcame a minimum of 1.2381. As discussed in the previous review, most traders have already had sell positions that have been held for quite a long time. Overcoming the mark of 1.2417, at least on July 23, put everything in its place. Moreover, the coordinates of 1.2381 did not become something unreal. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the clock frequency is stored in the market, where we are currently in the "Impulse" tact when considering the global trend.
The news and information background on Friday contained data on GDP (Q2) of the United States, where they expected a slowdown in economic growth from 3.1% to 1.8%, and as a result, they received it, but not on such a scale. There was a slowdown in economic growth, but to 2.1%, which certainly played into the hands of the American currency. We return to the information background, and here, everyone's beloved Boris Johnson decided to fully engage in the "cutting" of the British budget. According to the British Treasury, it will be allocated 1 billion pounds to prepare for Brexit without a deal with the European Union. I note that of this considerable amount, since one tenth will go to an advertising campaign, including the delivery of information leaflets to each house. "100 billion pounds Kurl!". No, you listen - 100 billion pounds!, It's even more than they banged on Tell Sid ads. What to say, Boris Johnson decided to finish the feast with a salute. Thus, we will continue to watch this circus tent.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have practically nothing of the over-important. The only thing that can be distinguished is the data on the UK lending market, where I expect consumer credit growth from 0.822V to 0.900V. The number of approved mortgage applications also grows from 65.41K to 65.75K.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the inertial move still persists in the market, where the quotation is already at the current moment storming the mirror level of 1.2350. Traders, in turn, are beginning to move into a stage of partial profit taking, a considerable part has already been passed, and the overheating of short positions is already clearly felt. It is likely to assume that with respect to the current values we can expect a gradual slowdown with the formation of the primary amplitude and as a fact of correction. Those traders who still continue to ride on the inertial course is advised to move the stop to breakeven and it is desirable to reduce the trading volume in the form of safety net.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's specify them:
- Positions to buy will be considered in the case of a slowdown, where a clear point will appear. Regarding the current coordinates, a point is considered higher than 1.2380.
- Positions for sale are already available, and now, on the contrary, a partial exit from them is being considered. One could speak about any further course after at least some kind of stopping and regrouping of forces, after which fixation is lower than 1.2300.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short, intraday and medium term remain in a downward plan due to the massive inertial course.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 29 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 48 points. In this case, all expectation for increasing volatility is focused on the inertial course. Otherwise, we will fall into stagnation.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300
Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
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