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Over the previous trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 37 points, as a result, it continued to form a cluster within an important coordinate. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation, after a close approach to the key range level of 1,1100, has entered a deceleration phase and, as a fact, forms a cluster of 1.1110 / 1.1150, as if taking a pause on the eve of an important event. As discussed in the previous review , traders continue to hold a wait-and-see attitude, analyzing the fixation points and the breakdown of the existing cluster. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the recovery of the global downward trend is hampered by the range level of 1,1100, restraining the pressure of sellers.
The information background of the previous day did not contain any solid statistics about Europe and the United States. In it we have the next statements about the ill-fated Brexit. What was told? British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again demonstrated his desire to leave the EU on October 31, no matter what. We will notice that England is ready to reconsider the agreement, since it considers the current agreements to be "dead." I note that in the recent past, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, reminded Boris Johnson that the EU's position on the agreement is unchanged and the current agreement on withdrawal is the best and only possible deal. Obviously, this kind of position of the EU does not suit England and will never be arranged, and it's not worth waiting for the "Miracle on the Hudson". This is probably one of the reasons why Britain allocated 100 billion pounds to a large-scale advertising campaign in honor of preparing a country's exit without a deal. As the foreign exchange market reacted to the entire information background, in particular, the reaction took place exclusively in the US currency in the form of a rapid fall, while other currencies, such as, for example, the euro, take a waiting position, interpreting everything that happens.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have only statistics on the United States regarding personal income and expenses, which should grow by 0.4% and 0.3%. The key event of the week awaits us tomorrow in the Fed meeting.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the accumulation process still remains on the market, forming an amplitude fluctuation within the limits of 1.1110 / 1.1150. Traders, in turn, continue to analyze the price fixing points, being out of the market. It is likely to assume a temporary preservation of the current oscillation with the analysis of fixation points.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider:
- Positions for the purchase, we consider in the case of fixing a clear price higher than 1,1150.
- We consider selling positions after clearly fixing the price lower than 1,1100.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short and intraday perspective have an upward interest due to current accumulation. The medium-term perspective maintains the downward interest in the market, due to the general background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 30 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 20 points. It is likely to assume that in the event of a cluster breakout, volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1180 *; 1,1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100.
Support areas: 1,1100 **; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
**** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment.
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