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4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 69p - 46p - 110p - 82p - 63p.
Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 74p (82p).
The EUR/USD currency pair showed no signs of life on Thursday, August 8, trading in a narrow price range for most of the day. No important macroeconomic report has been published to date, and only Donald Trump has struck a fresh chunk of criticism from the Fed through his Twitter account. This time, Trump wrote: "You might think that I admire the power of the dollar. However, it is not! Fed rates are high compared to other countries, which makes the dollar strong. Because of this, it is difficult for our industrial companies such as Caterpillar, Boeing and John Deere, car manufacturers and others to compete in global markets. " "We have the best companies in the world, which cannot be said about the Fed," the US president summed up. Well, nothing new. It seems that pressure on Powell and the Fed will continue until the trade war with China is over, or until the key rate is lowered to levels that suit Trump. As for the trade war, this epic is potentially no less interesting than Brexit. Trump's upper hand, in addition to the introduction of duties on imports from China, are few. By and large, the trump card is not a duty, but the fact that the United States is a huge market for goods manufactured in China. However, Beijing, from our point of view, has much more trump cards. To begin with, it is China that is the largest holder of US government securities. Or remember that more than 200 large American companies produce their goods in China. That is, producing goods in China is much cheaper and easier than in the United States. However, taxes, respectively, are not paid to the US Treasury. Trump wants to return production to the United States, increasing the labor market, taxes to the Treasury, but at the same time shifting all the risks to the companies themselves. It is worthwhile to understand that if, for example, Apple starts producing smartphones in the United States, then the price for them will immediately double twice, at least. Just because labor is much more expensive in America, taxes are higher, there will be a lot of problems with logistics, since most of the suppliers of components for machinery are in China, Korea and Japan. Where is it easier and cheaper to deliver parts? From China, Japan and Korea to China or to America? Well, a rise in prices will entail a drop in income and profits, and, accordingly, in production volumes.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair resumed the downward correction, having failed to overcome the level of 1.1233 for the third time. Thus, traders are advised to buy the euro with targets of 1.1272 and 1.1305 only after overcoming the R2 level - 1.1233.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be considered.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
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