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The lack of important fundamental data on the economies of the eurozone and the United States kept the EURUSD pair in the side channel. Today, the entire emphasis will be on the publication of the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which can weaken the position of the US dollar, but provided that traders find hints of a further decrease in interest rates this year.
Reports from The Retail Economist and Redbook went unnoticed by the market. According to The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, the US retail sales index for the week from August 11 to 17 fell by 0.2%, while compared to the same period in 2018, it increased by 0.4%.
The Redbook report indicates that in the first two weeks of August, retail sales in the US also decreased by 1.7%, but increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2018. During the week from August 11 to 17, sales increased by 4.9% compared to 2018.
Tax benefits and reducing the overall burden on business yesterday were the main topic of the US President's speech. Trump said he had been thinking about income tax for a long time, but nothing has been decided yet. Let me remind you that the White House is studying various tax cuts. We are also talking about lowering the capital gains tax by indexing it to inflation, which, of course, affects rich Americans to a greater extent. Trump noted that he can make such a decision without the US Congress, doing it directly.
During his speech, the American President once again criticized China, saying that someone should challenge. In his opinion, China is robbing the country, and it is necessary to solve this problem as quickly as possible. Trump also noted that the first step has already been taken and China is experiencing difficulties against the backdrop of measures against trade.
The speech of Fed officials also has not affected the quotations of the EURUSD pair.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said she did not currently expect a recession in the United States, but the recent decline in interest rates of the Fed was justified, as aimed at extending the period of economic growth in the United States. Daly also believes that the US labor market is in good shape, and the level of consumer confidence is high, which, of course, is not in doubt.
However, the US economy continues to face global negative factors and primarily suffers from the trade war unleashed by Trump. Also, the Fed has serious problems with inflation growth, which is likely to be a new reason for maintaining a series of lower interest rates this year.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed compared to yesterday's forecast. The next goal of the bears will be to update the lows of last week with the test of support levels of 1.1060 and 1.1030. If the bulls attempt to build an upward correction in the pair, it is best to consider short positions in the trading instrument from the upper border of the side channel of 1.1130. A larger resistance level is the area of 1.1160.
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