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In theory, the week should have begun with a serious reflection on what to expect from the Federal Reserve System, as well as with preparations for the upcoming meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations on Wednesday. But Brexit intervened again in the measured course of things. While the whole world was vigorously discussing an attack on Saudi oil companies, Boris Johnson asked Jean-Claude Juncker for amendments to the "divorce" agreement, which could arrange an obstinate British parliament. The results of this meeting are best characterized by the official press release of the European Commission and the text of which is better to cite in its entirety. "President Juncker recalled that the UK is responsible for proposing legally functional solutions compatible with the withdrawal agreement. President Juncker emphasized the continued commitment of the European Commission to examine whether such proposals meet the goals of the "backstop". Such proposals have not yet been received. "If you translate this into human language, it turns out that Europe itself does not intend to make any changes to the agreement, which the British Parliament has already rejected three times. Moreover, any proposals of the United Kingdom should not change the essence of the existing agreement and most importantly, Northern Ireland should still remain within the framework of a single European market. However, this is exactly what the UK does not like and although Europe has repeatedly sworn that as soon as Brexit is completed, they will not engage in a discussion of trade and economic issues that are generally absent in the text of the proposed agreement that British politicians do not intend to buy a pig in a poke. They just know very well what such promises are worth since they themselves forced whole continents to agree on certain agreements during the years of the British Empire. It is promising after that they would sign some incredibly beneficial agreements with them. That is how the British Empire at one time became the richest in the world. Then, they simply forgot about their promises to agree on something there. In fact, the results of this meeting leave the United Kingdom with no choice but to slam the door loudly and leave the European Union without any agreement; it doesn't matter who will lead the government. In short, the unregulated Brexit has again become a little more real.
Naturally, all of this fuss seriously bothered investors, and the single European currency along with the pound went down. However, the new Reichsmark is somewhat more active. This is precisely the point in the attack on oil enterprises in Saudi Arabia, for which the Yemeni Hussites took responsibility. But the United States inflicted a deep resentment on such respected people as they have appointed Iran as the guilty. It is clear that such accusations will be followed by concrete steps to punish the guilty party and first of all, the next sanctions. The first thing that comes to mind is the new restrictions on the oil industry of the Islamic Republic, where oil companies from Europe are quite widely represented, especially from France. Moreover, Europe is actively buying oil from Iran and if the United States imposes a complete ban on the sale of Iranian oil, the Old World will suffer the greatest financial losses. Moreover, this threatens even a shortage of energy in the European market. Hence, investors began to lay all these risks in the value of the single European currency.
The meeting of the Federal Committee for Open Market Operations will be held tomorrow, so investors have very little time to prepare for such an important event. Quite often, quotes go in the opposite direction from expectations in anticipation of such events. If they expect a softening of monetary policy and that's what everyone is passionate about, which should negatively affect the cost of portraits of the dead presidents, then the dollar will strengthen before the announcement of the decision. What is he doing in general? However, the expectation of such a large-scale event opens all eyes to reality -at least for a while. Hype in politics and information fade into the background and investors begin to carefully look at macroeconomic statistics. Today, insight will reveal to everyone the state of affairs in American industry, which doesn't look so cloudless. Not only does industrial production grew by only 0.5%, but its growth rate may also slow down to 0.2%. It is worth recognizing that this is simply an outstanding result for a country that modestly calls itself the greatest power in the world. Hence, industry data can somewhat cool the ardor of speculators and the market may freeze in place.
Industrial Production Growth Rate in the United States:
In the phase of the impulse movement, the euro/dollar currency pair returned to the psychological level of 1.1000, where it formed a stagnation. It is likely that a temporary amplitude fluctuation within 1.0985/1.1025, where the stagnation process may drag on until tomorrow.
After the impulse movement last Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair reached the level of 1.2500, where there was a slowdown followed by a pullback. It is likely to assume that the recovery process may still persist in the market, returning the quote in the direction of the previously passed level of 1.2350.
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