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Here comes another article on cryptocurrency, and what has changed over these days and what you should pay attention to. For 20 days in a row, this is how the Bitcoin price hovered, showing a variable fluctuation in the range of 6500/7000 (7500). In fact, this is a kind of stagnation in the recovery phase, which came to us after the general collapse. I do not think it is worth considering it as a certain phase of the movement, where there is a sacred meaning, since it is all very similar to a kind of stabilization process, just after sharp changes in the quote. This process cannot continue permanently, but it is not so easy to interrupt this turn. Here you need a push that will encourage market participants to take action, whether it is the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate or a decline.
Crypto enthusiasts try to think optimistically in terms of future development, hence various theories arise. So, one of the most popular assumptions is the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate based on the upcoming halving. The topic is outdated, but if you monitor Google Trends, you will be positively surprised by how popular this query is. Thus, if there is a demand, then there will be a supply, which will serve as a kind of platform for changing the existing mood.
What are they waiting for?
Everyone is waiting for growth, but they are considering it in terms of gradually increasing the cost. To be more specific, we are talking about 18 months after halving, where the bitcoin exchange rate will consistently update the existing highs. In other words, the borders of stagnation are broken (6500/7000(7500)), after which the current year's maximum is 10522, the crypto's maximum is 13868, and then the historical maximum is 19891.
It is not necessary to run headlong and buy cryptocurrency because these are just theories. Personally, it would be an ideal development if we received a kind of support based on halving, which would limit the decline in the exchange rate. With this support, the exchange rate will break out of stagnation and form a new round of recovery.
Halving is great, but it's not just the market that lives by it. So, the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Dallas conducted a study on the impact of the news background on the behavior of the cryptocurrency exchange rate.
According to the study, a pattern was found among a number of news items, so the negative dynamics on the course provoked topics related to restrictive actions:
- introduction of general prohibitions on working with digital assets;
- introduction of regulatory restrictions on working with cryptocurrencies;
- news about the fight against money laundering through the use of digital assets and the financing of terrorism;
- introduction of restrictions on working with cryptocurrencies in regulated markets.
Positive dynamics was demonstrated by news about topics:
- creating a legal framework;
- consideration of ETFs;
- adaptation of cryptocurrencies in the residential environment;
- ICO and IEO.
Now we understand that despite the Fed's lack of direct ability to regulate the cryptocurrency, the regulator is able to exert pressure, which will entail a change in the exchange rate.
Current development and prospects
Looking at the current trading chart, we see the price movement in the range of 6500//7000//7500, where the activity gradually decreases, and the concentration of forces is in the value of 7000. It is worth noting that the compression process occurs within the boundaries of 6500/7500, which does not violate the integrity of the range, and the existing process can lead to the effect of a spring, which will already help provoke acceleration and breakdown of the established boundaries.
On one technical analysis, you will not get far when trading cryptocurrency, thus you need a push from the outside. In this case, we are referring to external factors, and one of the strongest interactions with the market is just halving bitcoin. It turns out that if there are no other factors for comparable strength until May 12, then the BTC quote will continue to fluctuate within the range of 6500//7000//7500.
We can assume that in the case of a positive reaction to the external background and fixing the price above 7500, the recovery process can be resumed with a gradual move to the levels of 8500-9500.
General background of the crypto market
Analyzing the total market capitalization, we do not see any drastic changes, this is understandable, the market is drifting, and the total capitalization is hovering around $ 200 billion.
If we look at the volume chart in general terms, we will see that the variable ceiling remains at $ 210 billion, and the subsequent resistance is around $ 260 billion.
The index of emotions, also known as fear and euphoria of the crypto market, is at the level of 19, which is considered a low indicator. Market participants are reluctant to join the trade and are still under pressure from the external background, as well as the March collapse of the BTC exchange rate.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a buy signal relative to the main time periods, but it is worth considering that due to the fact that the price fluctuation is conducted in a side channel, the indicators of technical instruments are variable.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
