28.04.202011:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on April 28

From the point of view of complex analysis, we see a slowdown at the peak of the local upward trend, and now let's talk about the details. The variable flat 1.2300/1.2385 was locally passed in an upward direction. As a result, the quote managed to reach the level of 1.2453. In fact, an undeniable speculative interest at the time of the Pacific and Asian sessions were recorded, due to which this rally was formed. The subsequent fluctuation occurred in a relatively narrow range of 1.2400/1.2450, where the upper border has its own history and reflects the area of the level of 1.2500, on which the price was concentrated in the period of April 15 - 20.

Regarding the theory of downward development, there is an assumption that if the fact of speculative activity in the period of the Pacific and Asian sessions is proved, then the structure of a consistent decline has remained unchanged, which means that a price return to the level of 1.2250 is possible soon.

At the same time, the graphic pattern "Head and Shoulders" continues to gain impulse, where the right shoulder is symmetrical with the left, and the existing slowdown provides the basis for reflection in terms of the reverse tact. That is, on the basis of the graphical model, we have a similar downward development signal, where the level of 1.2250 reflects the neck line, and in case of breakdown, the main level 1.2150 is more likely to be broken, and this is a signal to resume the downward movement relative to the movement 03/23/20 04/14/20.

In terms of volatility, we record an acceleration relative to Friday of last week, but all the activity was a speculative jump, since the subsequent fluctuation had a volatility of 50 points.

Details of volatility: Monday - 165 points; Tuesday - 245 points; Wednesday - 172 points; Thursday - 358 points; Friday - 359 points; Monday - 144 points; Tuesday - 271 points; Wednesday - 676 points; Thursday - 354 points; Friday - 522 points; Monday - 267 points; Tuesday - 296 points; Wednesday - 333 points; Thursday - 452 points; Friday - 352 points; Monday - 148 points; Tuesday - 227 points; Wednesday - 108 points; Thursday - 126 points; Friday - 198 points; Monday - 116 points; Tuesday - 217 points; Wednesday - 131 points; Thursday - 122 points; Friday - 42 points; Monday - 87 points; Tuesday - 146 points; Wednesday - 193 points; Thursday - 119 points; Friday - 114 points; Monday - 86 points; Tuesday - 198 points; Wednesday - 111 points; Thursday - 106 points; Friday - 78 points; Monday - 94 points.

If you carefully analyze the data on volatility collected, you will see that the market is adapting to the external background, and activity indicators are gradually returning to the pre-crisis rate.

As discussed in the previous review, traders analyzed the behavior of quotes relative to the values of 1.2400 / 1.2455 for the points of price consolidation, which did not happen.

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], it is clear that the downward movement is not enough to change the mood of the market. The quote is still in an upward cycle, where a slowdown occurs at a conditional peak.

The news background of the past day did not have in itself the attention of statistics on the UK and the United States.

In terms of general informational background, we have the first speech of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who returned from illness. He warned about the maximum risk of a second outbreak of the virus if quarantine will be lifted too quickly.

The prime minister noted that he understands perfectly well what damage the quarantine measures cause to the economy, but now, the first priority is to prevent a second outbreak of infection and consolidate the results that have already been achieved.

In turn, Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said that the pandemic has led us to new standards that we will follow even after normalizing the situation.

"We will not just loosen quarantine. We will complete the transition to a new normality," said Dominic Raab.

In this case, it was a question of social distance, which will continue to persist even after weakening quarantine measures.

The column ends the information flow with news on Brexit. So, we already discussed in a previous review the statement of Michel Barnier regarding the lack of progress and at the moment, a member of the Cabinet of Ministers of Great Britain Michael Gove spoke, who continued the statement of his colleagues that there would be no extension of the transition period and Britain would have time to complete all the processes on time.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on wholesale orders in the United States, where stocks may grow by 1%.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the range of 1.2400 / 1.2450 was broken through the upward direction, that is, driving the quote to the main area of 1.2450 / 1.2500. In fact, this is not the end of a downward development, and we expected a similar scenario yesterday, as the main resistance is slightly higher than the earlier stagnation.

Thus, at this time, the area of 1.2450 / 1.2500 is being given special attention, since it is precisely this area that can play the role of resistance, otherwise the restoration theory may come under pressure.

Analyzing the time segment that we have per minute, we see that speculative activity arose in the period 7:00–8:00 UTC+00. There was a breakdown of the peak of the previous day just in this section of time.

It can be assumed that the area of 1.2450/1.2500 will continue to exert pressure on the quote. Based on this logic, it is possible that the level of 1.2500 will be reached and a stop with a rebound/decline is already within it. The continuation of the downward movement should be expected after the price consolidates lower than 1.2390.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Sell positions are considered lower than the level of 1.2390, towards 1.2350.

- Buy positions have already been considered from the level of 1.2455, towards 1.2500.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments on hourly and daily periods continue to signal a purchase, which reflects the existing movement.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 28 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 70 points, which is 48% below the average daily value. It can be assumed that activity can still grow, but volatility will be limited if it slows down within the range of 1.2500.

Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2725 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support areas: 1.2350 **; 1.2250; 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment