21.05.202011:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on May 21

From the point of view of complex analysis, you can see the recovery process relative to the inertial course, and now let's talk about the details. The past trading day was focused on variable stagnation within 1.2220/1.2280, which to some extent, coincided with the area of interaction of the trading forces 1.2240/1.2280, which reflected temporary sections: April 6, April 21 and 7 May.

It is worth noting that the inertial course may 18 and 19 did not affect the quantum specified in early May, the downward mood remains on the market, and this means that the quote does not intend to return to the dynamics of a six-flat formation, which has kept market participants in the previous period.

Regarding the theory of medium-term long-term development of the market, it is worth noting that the downward trend has not changed for 12 years, but only strengthened its position. Meanwhile, in regards to the development in the interval of 2020, high activity is noteworthy, but even with it, the downward trend remains in place. If we switch to the time interval at the end of March to the present, we can see that the surge in upward positions had a temporary effect on the market, after which there was a stabilization of dynamics, which confirmed the intention to maintain the main trend. So we have returned to the current chart, where the flat formation is behind us, signaling the stabilization of market interest, and the downward tact is set in front, which signals the end of the flat and the transition to the recovery stage.

Analyzing the past trading day in detail, you can see that the stop after the inertial move had a scale of 40 hours, which means the market was preparing for the reverse process.

As discussed in the previous review, the main trading tactic was the recovery process, which was waiting at the time of the breakdown of the variable range.

The trading recommendation from Wednesday regarding the recovery process was on standby, where a significant income for the deposit was brought in the first half of the day.

In terms of volatility, the lowest activity indicator for 28 trading days was recorded, it amounted to 65 points. Based on the theory of patterns, it can be assumed that a sharp decline in volatility will lead to local acceleration in the near future.

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we see a downward tact of May 1, which is now focused on the recovery process.

The news background of the past day contained the final data on inflation in the United Kingdom, where the decline was from 1.5% to 0.8% with a forecast decline to 0.9%.

The market reaction to a significant decline in inflation exerted a local pressure on the pound, but activity remained low.

In terms of the general informational background, another noise arose regarding negative rates in Britain. So, on Wednesday, the Bank of England sold its government securities with negative returns for the first time, which became a kind of catalyst for media attention. Actually, the move was not so surprising, since the yields on two-year bonds of the United Kingdom fell to a record low of -0.051% last week, but journalists regarded the current movement as an upcoming reduction in the refinancing rate.

It is worth noting that, according to the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the regulator is studying the experience of working with negative rates, but there is still no clear decision on actions.

In turn, the delayed trade negotiations between England and Brussels continue to struggle in the same place, where instead of taking action, there are threats, blackmail by the critic, etc.

So, this time, British Minister of Justice Michael Gove spoke out about flexibility in the actions of the European side.

"In fact, the EU wants us to abide by the rules of their club, which we no longer enter, and they want to have the same access to our waters as they do now, while limiting UK access to the European market," stated by Michael Gove in the House of Commons.

That is, a sharp battle continues, and there is less time left, and as soon as we reach the point of no return, the mood of the market will arise that will provoke further jumps in the market.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, a preliminary index of business activity in Britain was published, where they recorded growth from 13.4 to 27.8 in the services sector, and there was a jump from 32.6 to 40.6 in the manufacturing sector. The turn is actually unexpected, since they predicted a further decline that week, but here is growth. But I do not think that this phenomenon will have a positive effect on the pound in the medium-term, as there are still more negative factors.

A similar PMI will be published in the afternoon, but already in the United States, where in the services sector they expect growth from 26.7 to 32.0. Positive data are also expected in the manufacturing sector, an increase from 36.1 to 39.0.

Thus, rather optimistic forecasts for the United States may provide support for the growth of the US dollar again.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we can see how the quote actively showed downward interest during the Asian session, during which the quote moved closer to the control area of 1.2150 / 1.2180, which brought us income on local short positions. The pressure of 1.2150 / 1.2180 locally restrained the ardor of sellers, and unexpectedly positive PMI data from Britain played in favor of local long positions. It is worth considering that the accumulation of 40 hours on the period earlier and the breakdown of its lower border has already indicated the direction, thereby we can only wait until we update at least May 18th.

In terms of the emotional component of the market, a high coefficient of speculative positions is recorded, and the slowdown of the past day has become a kind of catalyst for trading forces.

We can assume that the price rebound from the area of 1.2150/1.2180 is temporary, and the quote will return to this area today, where the main tactic is the breakdown of this area and price consolidation below 1.2140. In this case, we will have a way to a minimum of May 18 - 1.2073, and possibly even to a psychological level of 1.2000.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Buying positions should be considered in terms of local transactions, where commitments are already being made in the area of 1.2330 - 1.2340.

- Selling positions should be considered as the main transactions in terms of recovery, where you can knit a piece of profit in the area 1.2180 ---> 1.2150 at first using a conservative trading volume. Major deals are already lower than 1.2140, with a movement towards 1.2080.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical tools on hourly and daily periods signal a sale, which reflects the general interest of market participants. At the same time, minute intervals work on a local burst of activity.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(May 21 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 60 points, which is almost equal to the dynamics of the past day, but this does not end there. It can be assumed that the regular basis will indicate acceleration, which can double the indicator.

Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.2250; 1.2350 **; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2725 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support areas: 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment