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GBP/USD 1H
An absolute flat was observed on the hourly chart for the pound/dollar pair on Monday. The activity of market participants was minimal, even lower than for the EUR/USD pair, which is traditionally considered less volatile. Quotes that have already overcome the support area of 1.2196-1.2216 returned to it and, at the time of writing, were trading slightly below it. Given the trend of recent days, a new downward channel has formed, which eloquently shows the current trend for the pair. It's down. Therefore, the pair can now rebound off the area 1.2196-1.2216 from below, as well as from the upper border of the descending channel and resume downward movement. Last week, the bulls did not manage to cross the Senkou Span B line, therefore, in aggregate, technical factors speak in favor of continuing the movement down to the May 18 low.
GBP/USD 15M
The lowest linear regression channel turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, however, we would not rush to conclude that the downward trend was coming to an end in the shortest term, since the bulls and bears were in almost complete balance on Monday. There is no upward movement as such now. The pair was trading between levels 1.2164 and 1.2204 on Friday and Monday, that is, in a very narrow side channel.
COT Report
The latest COT report for May 19 shows that the total number of buy and sell transactions among large traders per week increased by 29,000, and in equal proportions. Thus, large traders began to more actively trade the pound, which, however, is not particularly noticeable on the pair's movement chart, the volatility remains the same, not too high for the pound. Nevertheless, professional traders in the reporting week continued to actively sell British currency (+8303 sales contracts) and they were much less active in acquiring purchase contracts (total +4313). Thus, from our point of view, the mood for the GBP/USD pair remains more downward.
The fundamental background for the British pound remains negative. No important macroeconomic publications are planned in the first days of the new trading week in the United Kingdom and the United States, and fno important information from Great Britain is being received at all. In recent weeks, traders have been interested in promoting negotiations on an agreement between Brussels and London, but the next round ended in nothing, the parties admitted that they were at an impasse and without further concessions it makes no sense to continue the discussion. Too many cornerstone questions exist between Britain and the EU. Thus, it is now very difficult for the British pound to fuel demand among market participants, but at the same time, it cannot fall constantly and continuously, especially during the crisis, which also covered the US tightly. Thus, we believe that the pair will continue to fall to 1.2073, but it may take some time. Nonetheless, the advantage of sellers is not so strong at the moment.
We have two main options for the development of the event on May 26:
1) The initiative for the pair remains in the hands of bears. Thus, we recommend buying the British pound not before consolidating the price above the Senkou Span B line at 1.2270 and above the resistance level of 1.2280 with the first target resistance level of 1.2399. Take profit will be about 110 points in this case. The pairs are fraught with high risks below these levels of purchase, since the bulls don't have much strength now.
2) Sellers are currently more likely to implement their plans. Bears have already returned to the area below 1.2196-1.2216, which is enough to resume sales while aiming for the May 18 low at 1.2073. In this case, take profit will be about 100-110 points.
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