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GBP/USD 1H
The pound dollar, as well as the euro/dollar, began a downward correctional movement on Friday, June 12. A downward channel has also been formed for the GBP/USD pair, which currently supports trading on a decline. However, the pair tried to overcome the upward trend line yesterday, which continues to remain in force, but the attempt failed. Thus, the bulls continue to remain in the game, despite many signs of completing the upward trend. Since the downward channel is at our disposal, it has become much easier to trade consciously. At the moment, traders have managed to once again descend to the Senkou Smith B line and now it needs to overcome a new test of the ascending trend line. If this line can be overcome, then the bears will strengthen their presence in the market, and buyers will retreat even more. Otherwise, we expect quotes to consolidate above the downward channel and an upward trend to resume.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are again directed upwards and only the small one has started to turn down in the last few hours on the 15-minute timeframe. Thus, the pair is probably making a new attempt to start a downward trend.
COT Report
The latest COT report for the British pound, published on Friday, showed a strong drop in the number of open purchase contracts among professional traders. Their number decreased by almost 7,000, but there were only 705 new open buy-positions. Thus, traders didn't buy the pound sterling very much, and nevertheless, the British currency rose in price in the reporting week. If you look at the behavior of large traders in all categories, then you would see that they closed both purchase contracts and sale contracts. A total of 25,000 contracts were closed. Thus, in general, the pound was not in demand, but at the same time it was growing against the dollar. This week the pair is falling more than growing, but now it's very difficult to talk about the behavior of large traders.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remains unchanged. There are no fundamentally new statements or news on the main topic for the pound sterling - Brexit. Yesterday, the markets stirred up because of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's statements that negotiations should be completed before the end of 2020, that he hopes to sign an agreement before the end of summer, and negotiations themselves need to be intensified. However, we note once again that such a statement from Johnson does not mean that the parties are now ready to make concessions. As for macroeconomic statistics, yesterday it became known that, paradoxically, unemployment in the UK is not growing. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in April reached almost a million, but unemployment itself did not increase from the previous 3.9%. Earlier, we noted a similar paradox in the US and some European countries, despite the fact that top officials of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the governments of the EU and the US continue to declare high unemployment. Consumer price index for May will be released in the UK, which again is unlikely to catch the attention of market participants. More attention will be paid, as usual, to the statements of US President Donald Trump and the imminent growth of the US economy, as well as to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Congress. By the way, soon we can witness a new portion of criticism from Powell, as the US president is unlikely to be pleased with his speech in Congress, which became public.
There are two main scenarios as of June 17:
1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, since the upward trend line is still relevant. Therefore, formally, it is now relevant for long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.2740 and 1.2946. However, we consider it inappropriate to consider purchases earlier than consolidating the price above the downward channel. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 80 to 290 points.
2) At the moment, sellers have fulfilled correctional goals and will seek to overcome the trend line in order to form a new downward trend. In this case, it is recommended to resume trading on the down with the targets support levels of 1.2401 and 1.2268. Take Profit will be from 80 to 200 points.
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