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Good day!
Another major currency pair that we would like to consider today is the dollar/franc. Taking into account the weekly trading that ended on Friday, let's start with the corresponding timeframe.
Weekly
As you can see, following the results of trading on June 22-26, the USD/CHF currency pair declined and closed last week at 0.9476. It should be noted immediately that the week ended under the landmark technical and psychological level of 0.9500. It would seem that this fact may indicate the continuation of the downward scenario for USD/CHF, however, the long lower shadow of the last candle does not give full confidence in this.
The quote started trading on the current five-day period with a moderate weakening, however, the main events for investors are still ahead, so we will consider both scenarios. The upward scenario implies a return of the price above 0.9500 and a census of the last highs at 0.9525. In this scenario, the next targets for bulls in USD/CHF will be the price zone of 0.9542-0.9546. Here is the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator and the maximum trading values of the week before last are marked. I believe that only a true breakout of 0.9546 and the closing of the current weekly trading above this mark will indicate a priority for further growth of the pair.
Players on the downside need to break through support at 0.9420 (the last lows), after which the road to the next support level at 0.9375 will open. In my opinion, only a breakdown of this mark with the closing of weekly trading below it will indicate a bear market for the dollar/franc.
Daily
The last two candlesticks of the doji variety, with small bodies and long shadows, indicate the difficulties of the bulls for this instrument with further promotion of the quote in the north direction. This means that there is a high probability of a decline in the exchange rate. At the moment, this is exactly what is happening.
If USD/CHF continues to weaken, the targets at the bottom will be 0.9432 and 0.9420, and the breakdown of the last mark will further strengthen the bearish sentiment for this instrument and send the pair to the area of 0.9400-0.9375.
The bullish scenario will become more relevant in the case of successive breakouts of levels: 0.9500, 0.9507, 0.9530, and 0.9546. But this is not all. Next, players will have to pass the Kijun line, which is located at 0.9555, and fix themselves above it.
H4
On a four-hour timeframe, the USD/CHF pair is traded under the used moving averages: 50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA. I would like to note that in the case of a rise to each of the indicated moving averages, the quote may meet strong resistance and turn around to decline.
If this happens, I recommend looking for the nearest reference points for opening short positions for this currency pair in the area of 0.9483-0.9503. First, there are 50 MA and 89 EMA, respectively. Secondly, do not forget about the important psychological level of 0.9500, which can have a significant impact on the quote. Thus, at the moment, the main trading idea is sales from a dedicated price zone. The confirmation signal for opening short positions on USD/CHF will be the appearance of bearish candle signals in the selected zone on the 4-hour and (or) hourly charts.
Good luck!
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