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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair continue the growth process exactly inside the ascending trend corridor. Thus, the "bullish" mood of traders is completely preserved. Before closing quotes under the trend corridor, I do not recommend opening sales of the pair. The pound continues to look for any reason for new growth. If a river of negative information flows from America, which fulfills the dreams of bull traders, then from time to time messages come from the UK that causes additional pressure on the US dollar. Earlier this week, the head of the EU negotiating group, Michel Barnier, said that it was still possible to reach an agreement with London on Brexit, which immediately caused new purchases by the British. This is where the positive news from the UK ends. Boris Johnson, in one of his last statements, expressed fears that there are signs of a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Europe. Previously, British doctors warned that the country may have a second, third, and fourth wave of the disease. And a new wave may begin this fall. However, for now, traders are not interested in these concerns of British doctors and Boris Johnson. There is a trend, there are reasons to buy the pound and sell the dollar – everything is fine.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2964). The pair's rebound from this level will work in favor of the US dollar and begin to fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.2812). The pending bearish divergence is open since the indicator peaks and the quotes peaks do not coincide. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of further growth of the pair in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3157).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes secured above the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2776). Thus, the growth process can be continued towards the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line and rebound from it. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of two downward trend lines. It is in this direction that the pair's quotes continue to move in recent weeks.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, there were no important reports released in the UK, and in America, the calendar of economic events was also empty.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 GMT).
US - accompanying FOMC statement (18:00 GMT).
US - FOMC press conference (18:30 GMT).
On July 29, the news calendar of the UK is still empty. In America, traders will track the results of the FOMC meeting today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the pound was just as uninteresting as the previous one. However, despite the weak changes in the mood of major market players, the British pound continues to grow quite steadily. Although in the reporting week, speculators (the "Non-commercial" group) no longer opened long contracts, as a week earlier, but short ones. More precisely, it opened both groups of contracts, but short - much more by 1.5 thousand. But the "Commercial" group did not open a single new contract, getting rid of almost 5 thousand long and 2.5 thousand short. In general, almost 5 thousand shorts were opened and a small number of longs. Therefore, in some ways, the data in the COT report does not correspond to what is happening in the foreign exchange market. Hence the conclusion about a possible change in the mood of traders to "bearish" in the near future.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the pound with the goals of 1.2812 and 1.2679 if the closing is performed under the trend corridor on the hourly chart. In the pair's purchases, I recommend staying with the target of 1.3157, if a close above the level of 1.2964 is made on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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