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GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair also traded up all day on Thursday, November 5, repeating the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. Buyers managed to bring quotes to the previous local high, but failed to go beyond it. Therefore, since the fundamental background is not on the side of the British pound, quotes may sharply fall to a new ascending trend line today, which so far supports those trading upward, but at the same time it is not strong. The problem is that the recent upward trend is purely fundamental. This means that when the current fundamental background weakens, the mood of market participants may completely change, and the current trend will be broken in a matter of hours. Moreover, the British currency has no market support, since the UK has not provided any positive news. This indicates that this currency continues to balance on the brink of an abyss, and only the political crisis in the United States keeps it from falling again.
GBP/USD 15M
The linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which fully corresponds to the nature of the pair's movement on the hourly chart. At the same time, we expect the quotes to fall during the day.
COT report
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed that non-commercial traders were quite active in the period from October 20-26. However, their sentiment changed again, as can be seen from the green line of the first indicator in the chart. The mood of the "non-commercial" group of traders became more bullish for three consecutive weeks, but the net position decreased by 5,000 contracts over the last reporting week, so we can conclude that professional traders are again inclined to sell off the pound. However, if you look at the COT reports over the past few weeks or look at the first indicator, it becomes clear that commercial and non-commercial traders do not have a clear trading strategy right now. Perhaps this is due to an extremely unstable and complex fundamental background. The fact remains. The pound lost 90 points in recent trading days, and we believe that it will continue to fall. However, in the near future, we might receive important information about the progress of negotiations on the UK-EU trade deal, and the results of the vote for the US president will also become known. This information can change the mindset of professional traders. You need to be prepared for this.
The fundamental background was very weak for the British currency on Thursday. This point here is the failure of the next round of talks on the EU-UK trade deal, as well as the dovish position of the Bank of England, which was summed up at the results of the latest meeting. However, this information did pull down the pound because the US elections are of much greater concern to traders. Therefore, the pound grew and even the summing up of the results of the Fed meeting did not really change the situation. Now traders can count on a downward correction. In general, we believe that the pound is simply obliged to start falling on Friday, as it is impossible for one fundamental background to be ignored and the other to be worked out. US macroeconomic reports will be released on Friday. NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly wages. Naturally, the main focus of traders will be on the indicator of the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Forecast at +600,000. Any value below can exert more pressure on the dollar. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 7.7%, but there is a suspicion that the market will not take these statistics into account due to the US presidential elections.
We have two trading ideas for November 6:
1) Buyers of the pound/dollar pair tried to get ahead again, but gave up before the 1.3130 level, but they still managed to form an upward trend. And so traders are advised to stick with buy positions while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3166, but be careful, as a downward reversal around the 1.3130 level is possible. Take Profit in this case will be up to 50 points.
2) Sellers do not currently own the initiative in the market. And so you are advised to open new sell orders while aiming for the 1.2855-1.2874 area in case the price settles below the Kijun-sen line (1.2996) and the trend line, but also in small lots and with extreme caution. Take Profit in this case can be up to 80 points. Take note there may be highly volatile trades and sharp price reversals today.
Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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