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To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
Tuesday afternoon passed quite calmly since there weren't any fundamental reports. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points. Even during the European session, the bears tried to protect the 1.1884 level and even formed a false breakout from it, but the expected downward movement did not occur. Immediately after that, an entry point for long positions was formed. Testing the 1.1884 level from top to bottom resulted in forming a buy signal. The maximum growth from the 1.1884 level was about 30 points. The afternoon passed quite calmly. The 1.1884 level was shifted to 1.1879. The bulls became more active each time the pair approached this range, which resulted in the pair's growth, but this did not lead to serious changes in the market.
The technical picture has slightly changed compared to yesterday. Buyers need to think about protecting support at 1.1855, which appeared yesterday morning. Forming a false breakout in this range in the first half of the day can create a signal to open long positions in euros. The main target is to return to the resistance area of 1.1905. A breakout and being able to test this level from top to bottom creates another buy signal for the purpose of pushing EUR/USD to resistance at 1.1956, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the 1.2000 level. Since important fundamental reports will not be released during the European session, and data on changes in industrial production in France is unlikely to lead to serious market fluctuations, the lack of activity of the bulls in the support area of 1.1855 may increase the pressure on the pair. In this case, I recommend holding back from long positions until a larger low like 1.1804 has been tested, from which you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward movement of 25-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:
The initial task is to return the euro to support at 1.1855. A breakthrough and being able to test this area from the bottom up will create an entry point for short positions for the purpose of pushing the bear market to a low like 1.1804, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the 1.1749 level. The eurozone will not release any report today and this could strengthen the euro's position, especially following statements from Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen on the growth of US bond yields, which seriously affects the US dollar rate. If EUR/USD grows in the first half of the day, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1905. This scenario creates a convenient entry point into short positions in order to push the bear market. If the euro grows above resistance at 1.1905, then I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from a new high of 1.1956, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2000.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 2 revealed a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a clear shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the graph of the euro decline, which we have been observing for the third week. This time, it was not possible to quickly win back the next large decline in the pair. The sharp rise in bond yields in many developed countries continues, which plays in the favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The recent approval by the US Senate of a new bailout package and a $1,400 payment to all Americans affected by the pandemic makes risky assets even less attractive. Therefore, it is better not to rush to buy euros, but to wait for lower prices. A good advantage for the euro will be the moment when the active curtailment of quarantine and isolation measures begins in European countries: Germany has already announced its plan in this direction, but it has not yet come to the point. It is also necessary to wait for the moment when the service sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 228,501 to 222,655, while short non-commercial positions rose from 90,136 to 96,667. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the third consecutive week, from 138,365 to 125,988. The weekly closing price was 1.2048 against 1.2164 a week earlier.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty in the short term.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1905 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1882 area will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
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