17.03.202104:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 17. The European Union has sued the UK for non-compliance with the Brexit treaty.

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -41.0899

While the European currency is paired with the dollar in one place, the British currency is trading much more actively. For the pound/dollar pair, the downward trend is also maintained, as the price is located below the moving average line, but at the same time, the further prospects for the growth of the dollar are still in great doubt. This is evidenced by the same two global factors: the factor of a new stimulus package for the US economy, which will increase the US money supply by another $ 2 trillion, and the "speculative" factor. So even though the pound is very high and very overbought against the US currency, we would say that in 2021 there is more chance of seeing the pair continue to rise than a new downward trend. Although, from a technical point of view, a move down by 500-600 points would be very logical. The problem is that the pound/dollar pair has not been able to adjust normally even against the last round of the upward movement, which lasted five months, not to mention the entire upward trend, which began a year ago. Market participants still do not pay any attention to all the British problems, no matter what nature and scale they may be.

In the meantime, the European Commission has finally moved from words to deeds and has launched specific legal proceedings against the UK on the issue of non-compliance with the Brexit agreement by the British side. Recall that even at the stage of the negotiation process on a trade deal between London and Brussels, conflict situations repeatedly arose. The European Union accused London of non-compliance with the Brexit agreement, which was signed earlier. Then it was about the illegal actions of Boris Johnson, who wanted to adopt an internal law that allows him to change almost exclusively the points of the Brexit agreement, citing considerations of national security and the internal market. Then Johnson came under criticism from the whole world and, most importantly, from his politicians and lords, so this story was quickly hushed up. But, as practice shows, London is going to continue to violate previous agreements and at the same time complain that the European Union does not allow its financial companies to enter its market. "The EU and the UK have agreed on a protocol together. We are also obliged to implement it together," said Maros Sefcovic, Vice-president of the European Commission. Brussels has already sent an official notification to London that the legal procedure has begun, and Maros Sefcovic sent a personal letter to David Frost calling for a solution to the problem before the end of the month. Recall that the essence of the claim of the European Union is that Boris Johnson again unilaterally extended the validity of preferential customs checks on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. According to the British Prime Minister, this is "just a purely technical solution with good intentions". "We are only trying to deal with some temporary and technical difficulties, but of course we look forward to discussing the problem with our European friends," Boris Johnson said. However, the European Union does not seem to consider the situation as a "small technical problem". It is not without reason that Brussels believes that if London went once to violate the protocol "under good intentions", it will do it again and again. Therefore, now this problem will be resolved in court between the parties if the leaders of the bloc and the kingdom do not manage to resolve the problem in a personal conversation before the end of the month.

At the same time, more experts and publications are paying attention to the fact that the UK is beginning to feel the full "charm" of the consequences of Brexit. Boris Johnson is still silent about specific figures, but the first statistics of 2021 showed that exports of goods to the European Union decreased by 40%. The reasons aren't even too important. Whether it's bureaucracy or something else. The main thing is that with the advent of independence, it became much harder for British manufacturers to sell their products, even despite the notorious trade agreement. Remember what was the toughest disagreement between London and Brussels during the negotiations on the deal? "Fish" question. Johnson insisted that British waters should only be fully controlled by British fishermen. Do you know which food industry has suffered the most from Brexit? The seafood industry. Its exports to the EU countries decreased by 83%. Thus, it turned out that it is not enough to control your waters, you still need to be able to sell the entire catch. It is also reported that most of the problems on the new border between the UK and the EU lie just in the Foggy Albion. According to British media reports, London has not yet managed to install all the necessary customs and border infrastructure and equipment, and in reality, British exporters suffer more from bureaucracy than European ones. Also, for example, the British tabloid The Guardian reports that the European Union quite expectedly protects its interests, but at the same time does not stifle its own business and exporters with bureaucracy, which the UK cannot yet boast of. Also, sooner or later, all the grace periods of checks at the Northern Irish border will end, as well as additional import and export rules will come into force, which threatens to cause even greater problems for Britain's trade balance with EU countries. Thus, day by day, the number of problems in Britain is only growing. These are no longer ephemeral problems that may or may not arise. This is not a "Scottish question" or an "Irish problem", which may result in the loss of territories for the Kingdom or a new bloody conflict, which will take years to extinguish. These are specific economic losses that will negatively affect the UK's GDP, imports, and exports, further hampering its recovery from the pandemic and crisis.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 101 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Wednesday, March 17, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3793 and 1.3995. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal a new round of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3885

S2 – 1.3855

S3 – 1.3824

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3916

R2 – 1.3947

R3 – 1.3977

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a new round of upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open buy orders with targets of 1.3977 and 1.3995 if the price is fixed above the moving average line. It is recommended to consider sell orders again with targets of 1.3824 and 1.3794 if the price bounces off the moving average.