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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded quite calmly on March 22, but at the same time it was very accurate and clear. Monday night trading started unexpectedly 23 points below Friday's close. Such a gap has already given reason to assume an upward movement during the day, as usually the markets tend to close it. During the night trading, the movement, as usual, was quite calm and almost sideways. Traders began to be more active with the opening of the European trading session, and the first one to be reached was the extremum level of 1.1882. A not very accurate rebound followed from this level, nevertheless, it formed the first signal of the day - to buy. The target was, as always, the nearest level or line, in our case - 1.1911. It was reached and brought around 20 points of profit. Here the second inaccuracy of the day occurred, as at first the EUR/USD pair rebounded off the 1.1911 level and only overcame it on the second attempt. Therefore, traders could open short positions in this place first, and only then - long ones. In this case, the sell trade would bring 14 points of loss, and the next buy trade would bring 12 points of profit. Yes, the profit/loss values were quite low, but the move on Monday, in principle, was not very strong. No macroeconomic reports on Monday, not a single important fundamental event. As a result, a rebound from the Kijun-sen line - an exact rebound - so traders could sell the pair on this signal and earn another 12 points of profit, since the nearest Senkou Span B line was worked out. Well, another pullback followed from the Senkou Span B line, after which the Kijun-sen line was reached again, which brought traders another 8-10 points of profit. Overcoming the critical line could also be retracted, but we see that the upward movement after this signal did not continue, but the trade did not close at a loss. Thus, during the day, traders could earn around 40 points of profit, and the pair was repelled by various levels and lines all day.
EUR/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, we see that in general, the EUR/USD pair has overcome the critical Kijun-Sen line, so the upward movement may continue with the target being the nearest resistance level at 1.1971. Moreover, this level is within the assumed horizontal channel at 1.1882-1.1988. Thus, after working out the lower line of this channel (1.1882), there is a high probability of movement to its upper line - 1.1988. However, two speeches will take place. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen are expected to speak, but it is not yet known what exactly they will be announcing. Perhaps about the digital dollar and cryptocurrencies. And perhaps about the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the US economy. In any case, you should be careful about opening and maintaining already open trades during their speeches. In general, you should trade from important levels and lines that are plotted on the hourly timeframe. The nearest levels are 1.1911 and 1.1931 (Kijun-sen). Signals can be rebounds and when levels and lines are surpassed. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false or a sharp reversal occurs after some fundamental or macroeconomic event.
COT report
Recall that the EUR/USD pair did not grow and did not fall by a single point during the last reporting week (March 9-15). Despite the fact that the downward movement is not too strong, market participants continue to actively get rid of buy (longs) contracts for the European currency. Look closely at the chart above. The green and red lines of the first indicator diverged as much as possible around September last year. Then we said that the upward trend is nearing its end. But instead, thanks to trillions of dollars poured into the US economy, the dollar continued to fall. However, in comparison with the September highs, the bulls failed to take the pair farther up. At the moment, the 2.5-year high is located near the 1.2350 level. And the green and red lines of the indicator, which represent the net positions of non-commercial and commercial groups of traders, tended to narrow all this time. That is, roughly speaking, a downward trend could have begun in September last year. Now, the green and red lines have accelerated their movement towards each other. In the two weeks leading up to the last COT report, the non-commercial group closed 22,000 Buy contracts (longs) and opened 22,000 Sell contracts (shorts). This is a very serious change for the most important group of traders. The latest COT report, which was released yesterday, showed that professional traders continued to get rid of purchases of the euro during the reporting week and closed another 12,000 Buy contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players became even more bearish. This all adds up to an excellent outlook for a downward trend, but be careful! We believe that global fundamentals could again have a strong impact on the EUR/USD pair in 2021. You have to understand that the global crisis is not over yet!
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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