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To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following situation should occur:
On Monday, the trading volume was rather low amid the Easter holidays in a number of countries. Euro bears pushed the euro/dollar pair below 1.1753, but they failed to concrete the downward trend. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened: the pair broke below the indicated level and consolidated below 1.1753. Then it reversed slightly upwards and tested this level again. This is an excellent signal to open short positions on the euro. The single currency lost about 15 pips and shortly after the quote moved up. There were no other signals during the day. Strong US macroeconomic reports, on the contrary, attracted new buyers of risky assets to the market and did not provide any support to the US dollar.
Before we discuss the future prospects of EUR/USD, let's look at what has happened in the futures market and how the positions of Commitment of Traders have changed. As for the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 30, long and short positions have undergone a number of changes. Short positions grew significantly. It indicates that the market remains under the control of euro bears. The drop in the delta occurred as a result of a slight decline in long positions and a sharp increase in short positions. European countries have again re-introduced lockdown measures this spring due to a new strain of coronavirus and slow vaccination rates that was conducted in the winter. New quarantine restrictions are causing serious damage to the economy. Experts fear that the euro area GDP may shrink in the second quarter. Bureaucratic delays in the implementation of the EU Recovery Fund are another reason for the weak growth of the eurozone economy during the pandemic this year. For this reason, in the medium term, demand for riskier assets is weak, which may lead to further formation of a downtrend. Investors expect the United States to be the first to start hiking interest rates, which makes the US dollar more attractive. As for the eurozone, its economic outlook is likely to improve only after the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of the services sector. If so, the EUR/USD pair is sure to regain ground. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined to the level of 194,764 from the level of 195,500, while short non-profit positions rose from the level of 102,178 to the level of 121,024. As a result, the total non-profit net position again decreased amounting to 73,739 against the level of 93,332 a week earlier. The weekly closing price also fell to 1.1768 against 1.1932 a week earlier.
As for the technical analysis, the pair's trajectory has also gone through some changes that should be mentioned. The sharp rise in the euro yesterday afternoon led to the formation of a new resistance level of 1.1821, which will be in focus today. If the quote breaks and consolidates above this level with a reverse test from top to bottom will be an appropriate signal to open long positions with the target neat the high of 1.1856, where I recommend locking in profits. The next major resistance level is seen around 1.1893. Today the EU is going to unveil unemployment data. Yet, this report is unlikely to significantly affect the market. If yesterday's upward movement of the euro is not supported by bulls and the pair declines in the first half of the day, do not rush to open long trades. Wait for the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1779 where you can open long positions. There are also moving averages near that level showing strong bullish bias. If bulls are unable to push the pair to 1.1779, I recommend postponing long positions until the pair tests the support level of 1.1740 from where you can buy the pair immediately. Bear in mind that the pair may rebound and correct upwards by 20-25 pips within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following situation should occur:
Bears need to defend the resistance level of 1.1821. Only the formation of a false breakout at this level in the first half of the day will be a good signal to open short positions with the aim of returning to the support area of 1.1779. This is a very strong level. So, bears and bulls are likely to fight for this level as the breakdown above or below this level will determine whether further upward correction of the euro, which was formed yesterday, will continue. A breakout and consolidation below this range with a test of this level from the bottom up forms a good entry point for sellers. The target level will be the low of 1.1740, where I recommend locking in profits. A more distant target will be the support level of 1.1715. If there is no activity of sellers in the area of 1.1821, it is better to postpone short positions until the pair reaches the high of 1.1856. If so, you can open short positions immediately with the possibility of a rebound and a downward correction of 15-20 pips within the day.
I recommend watching my video forecast for today.
Indicator signals:
Moving Average
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to start a new upward trend.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are conducted by the author according to the H1 chart and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
The growth of the euro will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1840. If the pair drops, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1745 will serve as support.
Description of indicators
Moving average smooths out individual highs and lows in the price, making it easier to see the overall trend. Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and other not important signals). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Qiuck EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
Bollinger Bands. Period 20
Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
Long non-commercial positions represent the total volume of the long open positions of non-commercial traders.
Short non-commercial positions represent the total volume of the short open positions of non-commercial traders.
The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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