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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair was trading much more actively than the EUR/USD pair on Thursday. However, this is not surprising, since the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England was scheduled for that day, so high volatility was expected. By the way, in reality there was no high volatility, since the BoE did not make any important decisions and did not make any important statements. We consider in detail the results of the meeting of the British central bank in our fundamental articles. We recommend that you familiarize yourself. Only two signals were generated yesterday, both at the US trading session, when the BoE meeting had already ended. Thus, it is even better that there were no trading signals in the first half of the day that could bring losses to traders. The price simply did not approach the important levels and lines. After the results of the BoE meeting were announced, the pound/dollar quotes fell by 85 points and reached the Kijun-sen line, from which there was a rebound. This rebound was a buy signal that should have been worked out. However, there was no strong upward movement, the pair passed only 22 points after the signal was formed, which was enough to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven, at which the long position closed. Subsequently, the pair's quotes once again fell to the critical line and formed a buy signal again, which should not have been worked out, since it was almost the evening. And we do not recommend opening deals at night.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 25. Central banks remain wary of hawkish rhetoric.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 25. Andy Haldane was left alone...
GBP/USD 1H
We can see the downward movement on the hourly timeframe for the pound/dollar pair during the past day, which was triggered by the BoE meeting. As a result, the quotes dropped to the critical line, from which a rebound can occur, which will provoke the resumption of the upward movement. The trend line was successfully broken on Thursday, which is also not surprising given the significance of the fundamental event in the UK. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them (note that some of them have been moved, while others have been removed): 1.3800, 1.3859, 1.4008 and 1.4080. Senkou Span B (1.3986) and Kijun-sen (1.3893) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. There will be no major report or event on Friday in the UK. Thus, we only have hopes for US reports, which will also be very weak. Therefore, today, most likely, traders will not wait for any market reaction, since there will simply be nothing to react to. Therefore, it will be necessary to trade on pure technique. The Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines are now the landmarks, but the signals around these lines are required to be clear and accurate. In addition, you need at least average volatility, and not standing in one place.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 70 points during the last reporting week (June 8-14). However, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report was not released on Friday, so no special conclusions can be drawn on the current mood of the major players. It is necessary to wait for the new report, but it won't provide a complete picture of the state of affairs, since the last three trading days will not be included in it. But it was during these three days that the pound lost around 300 points, so it can be assumed that professional traders closed long positions and opened short ones. Consequently, the mood of traders could change and become less bullish. However, all of this will become known when the new COT report is published. So far we can say that in recent weeks nothing has changed much with the mood of the "non-commercial" group, which is the most important of all. This is not surprising, since the pair stood practically in one place for the entire month. We believe that global fundamentals will continue to have a negative impact on the US dollar, but this does not mean that the pound cannot fall in the short and medium term. As for the indicators, they also did not show any changes in recent weeks. In the first indicator, the green and red lines (net positions of groups of traders "non-commercial" and "commercial") continue to move sideways, and in the second indicator, the histogram has been at approximately the same level in recent weeks, which signals the absence of any or changes in the mood of professional players.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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