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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was moving rather weakly again last Friday. The total volatility of the day was just over 50 points. Thus, one could not count on active trading again, but one had to count on more active movements. The fact is that the European Union published three quite important reports at once. Consumer price index, GDP and unemployment rate. If each separately taken report could possibly be ignored by the markets, then taken together they really represented a force. Moreover, the inflation rate rose to 2.2% y/y, GDP - by 2.0% q/q, and the unemployment rate dropped from 8.0% to 7.7%. Thus, all reports in the EU turned out to be better than forecasts. Also on this day, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gave a speech and several minor publications were published in the United States. However, all these statistics and events, as they say, "passed" the market. The European currency did not receive any support from the bulls. It remains for us to figure out how to trade on Friday. By and large, only two trading signals were generated on July 30. Both are terribly imprecise and fuzzy. The quotes of the pair settled above the extremum level of 1.1881 at the beginning of the European trading session, which should have been regarded as a buy signal. However, long positions on this signal were closed at breakeven, as the price went up only 22 points, after which it turned down. The second signal - to sell - was formed in the US session, when the pair's quotes settled below the level of 1.1881, after which they went down about 20 points and allowed traders to earn about 10 points, since the short position should have been closed manually in the late afternoon. As a result, it was small, but still a profit.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 2. Preview of the week. The US dollar is waiting and hoping to see strong reports from ADP and NonFarm Payrolls.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 2. The Bank of England is unlikely to surprise traders with anything. All attention to the US labor market.
EUR/USD 1H
A downward correction began on the hourly timeframe for the euro/dollar pair, but the upward trend remains, as evidenced by the upward trend line. The price, however, is quite far from it, but nevertheless. We still expect the euro to continue to rise, as global factors speak in favor of this. On Monday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1852, 1.1881, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1801) and Kijun-sen (1.1839) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union will publish only indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector on Monday. A similar index of business activity will be released overseas. However, traders are unlikely to react in any way to these reports, which are not important in the current environment.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD increased by 5 points during the last reporting week (July 20-26). However, the pair's movements are not the main thing. The main thing is that the major players have been increasing the number of sell contracts (shorts) for the sixth week in a row and closing buy contracts (longs) for the euro currency. This is very clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart, which has been steadily declining recently. Recall that this indicator displays the net position of the "non-commercial" group, the most important group of traders. Non-commercial traders closed 5,600 buy contracts (longs) and opened 1,700 sell contracts (shorts). Thus, their net position decreased by another 7,300 contracts. This suggests that the bullish mood of professional traders continues to weaken. At the same time, we would like to note that the euro currency has not started a new downward trend and this is a very important point, from our point of view. We have already said earlier that when the red and green lines of the first indicator (the net positions of the "non-commercial" and "commercial" groups of traders) move towards each other after a long period of distance, it means that the current trend is completed and a new one is emerging. However, in our case, we are talking about a correction against a global upward trend. It turns out that, on the one hand, the readings of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports and the movement of the pair coincide, and on the other hand, the upward trend persists, and the euro has not fallen very much and has fallen in price. Moreover, it did not even manage to update the previous local low. From our point of view, this suggests that the actions of major players are again overlapped by the actions of the Federal Reserve, which continues to print money. Thus, the money supply in the United States continues to grow, which leads to the depreciation of the dollar. And this factor negates all the efforts of major players who are getting rid of the euro.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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