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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair has been moving perfectly during the last trading day of the week. Several important reports were published in the US, which provoked a strong appreciation of the dollar. Without going into details (which are discussed in fundamental articles), let's say that the non-farm and the unemployment rate turned out to be better than the forecasted values, so market participants rushed to buy the dollar. So the dollar significantly rose last Friday solely due to the macroeconomic background. Now let's look at trading signals. In principle, this will not take much time, since there was only one signal last Friday. But what a! The price bounced off the Senkou Span B line during the European trading session, forming a sell signal, which remained for most of the trading day. The decline began almost immediately after the formation of the signal and ended near the extremum level of 1.1756. Since a rebound followed from this level, short positions should have been closed here. The profit on the deal was 60 points. The only point that should be mentioned will be the same reports from the US that were published at the beginning of the US session. Here it was necessary to set Stop Loss on a short position at breakeven, since by that time it was already in profit. And this should have been done in any case, since the price had gone down 15 points anyway by that time. Thus, no matter which side you look at, traders would not have been able to get a different result other than a profit of 60 points.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 9. NonFarm Payrolls provide unexpected support to the US dollar.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 9. Will the pound wait for the euro to complete the correction? Is the British economy growing fast?
EUR/USD 1H
The technical picture changed on the hourly timeframe due to the strong movement on Friday. The pair quotes confidently crossed the rising trend line, so now there is no doubt that the trend has changed to a downward trend. At the moment, the quotes dropped to the level of 1.1756, from which they rebounded five times in total a couple of weeks ago. Thus, another rebound can again provoke an upward movement, and overcoming this level will increase the likelihood of the pair continuing to move down. On Monday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1704, 1.1756, 1.1852, 1.1894, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1832) and Kijun-sen (1.1827) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Neither the European Union nor the United States will have a single important macroeconomic or fundamental event on Monday. Volatility may return to the usual range of 40-50 points, and the trend may be absent.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD increased by 5 points during the last reporting week (July 20-26). However, the pair's movements are not the main thing. The main thing is that the major players have been increasing the number of sell contracts (shorts) for the sixth week in a row and closing buy contracts (longs) for the euro currency. This is very clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart, which has been steadily declining recently. Recall that this indicator displays the net position of the "non-commercial" group, the most important group of traders. Non-commercial traders closed 5,600 buy contracts (longs) and opened 1,700 sell contracts (shorts). Thus, their net position decreased by another 7,300 contracts. This suggests that the bullish mood of professional traders continues to weaken. At the same time, we would like to note that the euro currency has not started a new downward trend and this is a very important point, from our point of view. We have already said earlier that when the red and green lines of the first indicator (the net positions of the "non-commercial" and "commercial" groups of traders) move towards each other after a long period of distance, it means that the current trend is completed and a new one is emerging. However, in our case, we are talking about a correction against a global upward trend. It turns out that, on the one hand, the readings of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports and the movement of the pair coincide, and on the other hand, the upward trend persists, and the euro has not fallen very much and has fallen in price. Moreover, it did not even manage to update the previous local low. From our point of view, this suggests that the actions of major players are again overlapped by the actions of the Federal Reserve, which continues to print money. Thus, the money supply in the United States continues to grow, which leads to the depreciation of the dollar. And this factor negates all the efforts of major players who are getting rid of the euro.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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