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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair showed absolutely no interesting movement on Monday. The price stayed in one place all day, in the 1.1751-1.1767 range, and only went slightly below it in the middle of the US session. However, even this departure did not change anything at all and did not allow traders to open trading positions. Monday's volatility was 25 points at one point. It's not even just a little, it's minuscule. Thus, it is not surprising that not a single trading signal was generated during the day. And besides that, there was also not a single macroeconomic report and a single fundamental event. Therefore, traders did not have anything to react to on August 9, the pair stood in complete calm all day and not a single trading signal was generated. The most boring Monday.
EUR/USD 1H
The technical picture looks a little more interesting on the hourly timeframe. First, it should be noted that the upward trend has been canceled, which means that now we can count on a downward movement. Secondly, quotes have already dropped to the area of local lows from July 19-23. That is, there is a high probability that a rebound from this area will follow and a new round of the upward movement will begin. In general, we continue to expect that the dollar will depreciate again, despite strong statistics on the labor market and unemployment. However, since the trend is still descending on the hourly timeframe, it is more important to consider selling the EUR/USD pair. On Tuesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1704, 1.1756, 1.1852, 1.1894, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1833) and Kijun-sen (1.1820) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The only report of the day on Tuesday will be the business sentiment index of the ZEW Institute in the European Union. However, this report is so insignificant at this time that one should not expect any reaction to it. Most likely, tomorrow there will be a very weak movement again.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair increased by 70 points during the last reporting week (July 27 – August 2). At the same time, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for this week showed minimal changes in the mood of major players. During this period of time, the "non-commercial" group closed 3,000 buy contracts (longs) and 500 sell contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders decreased by another 2,500, and the mood of major players became even less bullish. Less bullish and not more bearish because at the moment, professional players still have more open buy contracts than those for selling. Thus, the global upward trend, which we talk about very often, can still resume at any moment. Pay attention to the chart above. At the moment, the quotes have not even been able to fall to their previous local low on the 24-hour timeframe. That is, at the moment it is not even possible to say that a new downward trend has begun. Everything still looks as if the pair is simply correcting against a long-term upward trend. And this correction may end in the near future. We remind you that the US currency continues to be negatively affected by the factor of the Federal Reserve's injection of billions and trillions of dollars into the economy, which inflates the money supply in the country and provokes an increase in inflation. Thus, the dollar may depreciate due to this factor, and the European currency – due to the factor of sales by its major players. The question is which of the currencies will become cheaper faster. So far, both indicators show very well what is happening with the euro/dollar pair. As you can see, when the pair decreases, the net position of major players also decreases (the second indicator), and vice versa.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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