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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded as dull as possible on Monday. It's so boring that there's nothing to even talk about. 27 points. This is exactly the amount of Monday's volatility. And this is not just a little, it is minuscule. The movement was even more or less strong on Friday. However, there was also a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell then, and several macroeconomic reports in the United States. There was nothing interesting on Monday. Therefore, it is absolutely logical that in the current reality, traders have not found any reason to try to trade more actively than 27 points. As a result, there is nothing special to say about yesterday. Only one trading signal was generated during the day. Quotes bounced off the extremum level of 1.1805 in the middle of the European trading session. However, the pair failed to reach either the nearest support level of 1.1779 or the critical line. Therefore, when the price went down 15 points, it was necessary to set Stop Loss to breakeven, and it was on this order that the deal was eventually closed, since the quotes returned to the level of 1.1805 in the middle of the US session.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 31. A very interesting week awaits us. The euro will try to build on its recent success
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 31. All eyes on NonFarm Payrolls and ADP report. The dollar will try to find support from them
EUR/USD 1H
You can clearly see that the price continues to be located within the rising channel on the hourly timeframe, so the upward trend remains relevant. Unfortunately, the volatility of the pair remains extremely weak, so it is unlikely that it will be possible to extract a large profit from this "trend" movement. Nevertheless, we can still expect further growth in the pair's quotes. Powell's speech created additional pressure on the dollar quotes, so the chances for its further decline are growing. On Monday, we continue to recommend considering trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1704, 1.1750, 1.1805, 1.1852, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1735) and Kijun-sen (1.1768) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. On August 31, the European Union will publish the consumer price index for August. The last few reports on European inflation have been ignored by traders, as the indicator itself has remained virtually unchanged in recent months. However, this time, according to experts' forecasts, it may accelerate immediately to 2.7%. And in monthly terms, it will grow by 1.5%. Thus, the markets may react to this report, so you need to be on the lookout in the European trading session. In the United States, only the consumer confidence indicator is planned for today, which, according to forecasts, may fall from 129.1 points to 123.3. Thus, the European currency may continue to rise tomorrow.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 30 points during the last reporting week (August 17-23). So, for now, judging by the chart of the European currency, traders are still in a bearish mood. However, both indicators in the chart above indicate that the bullish mood among the major players remains, which is indirectly another factor that speaks in favor of the resumption of the upward trend in the EUR/USD pair. The non-commercial group of traders, which is the most important, still has more open contracts to buy than sell. This value has been declining recently, but it is still bullish. The mood of professional players became more bearish during the reporting week. The non-commercial group has closed almost 40,000 Buy contracts (longs) and only 7,200 Sell contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position immediately decreased by 33,000. This suggests that the process of selling the European currency continues. However, we knew this and judging simply by the chart of the EUR/USD pair. We believe that the failure to overcome the 1.1700 level will preserve the scenario with a new upward trend, no matter how much the net position of non-commercial traders declines. Because the technique eloquently indicates a very likely renewal of the upward movement. But if the price overcomes the 1.1700 level, big players may feel that this is not just a correction, but a new downward trend and continue to build up short positions. Therefore, in a way, the euro/dollar pair is now at a very important point, price and time.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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