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Bitcoin still looks weak and, judging by the movement of technical indicators, is more inclined to move towards the lower part of the current fluctuation area. The asset lacks a powerful upward momentum and fundamental prerequisites for growth. Investors are behaving with restraint towards BTC due to the gradual curtailment of the economic stimulus program in the U.S., which was the main catalyst for the growth of the coin's quotes in October-November 2021. However, an event has occurred on the world stage that can help Bitcoin resume its long-term upward movement.
We are talking about the official statement of the representatives of the developer Evergrande regarding the inability to fulfill debt obligations. The market reacted to the official statement of the company with restraint, since the main reaction of investors to the event was played back in November. Despite this, many experts are already predicting the catastrophic consequences of the bankruptcy of the developer with a $300 billion debt. Among the endless stream of apocalyptic assumptions about the future of the Chinese economy, the most interesting for me is the thesis about the beginning of a new debt crisis.
If you dive into the history of the recent past, you can see a pattern that Bitcoin sets a new historical record whenever the crisis in China reaches its peak. I assume that Evergrande's debt will be restructured and partially repaid with the help of state aid and the government bond market. However, payments of even small amounts on such a massive debt will definitely affect the global economy, and advanced states will also not avoid financial participation in the repayment of obligations.
All this will cause a global surge in inflation and excitement among investors of classic financial instruments. With this in mind, I expect an increase in interest in high-risk assets.
Given the correlation between Bitcoin rallies and periods of exacerbation of inflation, I assume that in the long term, repayment of the developer's debt will be the catalyst for a new bullish rally. Moreover, I expect a significant expansion of the current institutional audience of cryptocurrencies and the involvement of more public and private pension funds.
In 2021, we should not expect a significant increase in the value of the asset, but in 2022 the coin can start with the renewal of the ATH, due to the launch of bankruptcy proceedings or debt restructuring. It is also important to note that if a spot ETF for BTC is adopted at the beginning of 2022, then we can expect a new maximum to be set at the end of 2022 at the level of $150k-$200k.
As of 11:00 UTC, the main cryptocurrency continues to trade in the range of $40k-$50k. At the same time, technical indicators indicate pressure from sellers. The MACD is moving sideways on a flat, and the stochastic has formed a bearish intersection and continues to fall. By the movement of metrics, you can see that the price tends to the lower boundary of the area, which runs around $42k.
The candle analysis also indicates a decline in the price: the reaction of bulls to the impulse drop was extremely weak. This is evidenced by the uncertain bullish candles formed after the fall. At the same time, the pulse candle of the price drop has a long lower wick, which indicates a high probability of a repeated retest of the local minimum. With this in mind, I believe that before a full-fledged attempt to go beyond the $40k-$50k range, BTC/USD quotes will once again fall below $45k.
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