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No matter how it may seem to investors that aggressive monetary restriction will slow down the U.S. economy so much that the Fed will eventually abandon its plans, there is no escaping the truth. The continuation of the correction of U.S. stock indices and the rally in Treasury yields create a tailwind for the U.S. dollar, so the GBPUSD bulls had to retreat as they ended a very successful week on January 14th. A new five-day period is ahead, which, due to the busy economic calendar, promises a lot of interesting things for the pound.
According to the CFTC, in the week of January 11, speculators continued to increase net longs for the U.S. dollar against major world currencies, so its collapse against the background of mass closing of long positions should not be surprising. Moreover, the EURUSD pair also managed to break out of the medium-term consolidation range of 1.122–1.138. Yes, euro buyers succeeded, which sterling also took advantage of, but then what? Germany's GDP shrinks by 1% in the fourth quarter, the ECB does not mumble with raising rates, and the energy crisis continues in the eurozone.
The U.K. economy, on the contrary, pleased, expanding by 0.9% MoM in November and finally reaching pre-pandemic levels. Now it is 0.7% more than in February 2020. Nevertheless, Omicron is likely to reduce GDP in December, so it's too early to rejoice.
UK GDP dynamics
In the week of January 21, investors' attention will be focused on the events surrounding the resignation of Boris Johnson from the post of prime minister, as well as on the releases of data on U.K. inflation and the labor market. Dissatisfied with the eccentric behavior of the current head of government, including his participation in a Downing Street party banned because of COVID-19, the Conservative Party is ready to change its leader. And while uncertainty is not good news for sterling, it may ultimately benefit from a change of prime minister. It's like the chief executive is leaving the company. What is not an opportunity to prove yourself for the new leadership?
As for inflation, according to the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts, it will accelerate from 5.1% to 5.2%, which will make the increase in the repo rate from 0.25% to 0.5% at the meeting of the Bank of England in February 3 a resolved issue. The market is 100% sure of this. However, what's next? According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, consumer prices will accelerate to 6% in April, but by the end of the year they will slow down to 4%. As a result, the BoE will not need aggressive monetary restriction. The company expects only two increases in the repo rate in 2022, which is significantly lower than the four acts of monetary policy tightening signaled by the futures market.
In my opinion, investors got carried away with the idea of selling the U.S. dollar, and now it's time to reconsider their views. More precisely, to return to the good old truths.
Technically, the inability of the GBPUSD bulls to keep quotes above the current level at 1.367 is a sign of their weakness and a reason for short-term sales. A rebound from the moving averages at 1.36 and 1.3565 will give grounds to reverse and form medium-term longs.
GBPUSD, Daily chart
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