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U.S. stock index futures are trading slightly above Tuesday's opening day as no one wants to take risks ahead of key inflation data later this week. So far, calmness and a decrease in volatility after two stormy weeks are only occasionally replaced by small movements in one direction or another, which usually occurs after the publication of reports by large U.S. companies. Futures contracts for the Dow Jones rose 45 points, or 0.13%. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained virtually unchanged.
Of the news today, perhaps, attention will be attracted by data on the U.S. trade deficit, which could reach $82.8 billion, which would be a record.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is on edge, watching how the Federal Reserve will react to increased price pressures. Bank of America announced Monday that they expect interest rates to rise by 1.75 percentage points - or seven times this year. According to the bank's economists, only this will help to stop the inflationary pressure expected this year. Against this background, Treasury bond yields have reached new pandemic-era highs. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are already yielding 1.93%, based on January 2020 figures.
As for yesterday's results: the S&P 500 lost 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.58%. Both were trading in a good plus, but over the past hour, they have sunk significantly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Monday's trading session just 1 point above the opening level. At some point, the benchmark of 30 stocks added 235 points.
Until it becomes clear exactly which way U.S. inflation is moving, as well as how aggressively the Fed will intervene in what is still considered overvalued in the stock market, we can expect sharp jumps and a surge in volatility. However, by the time interest rates rise in March this year, the "hysteria" should gradually subside, as investors will have a clear plan for further actions on the part of the central bank.
On Thursday, the Department of Labor will publish data on the consumer price index for January. The data follows a stronger-than-expected January employment report. This may push the Fed to become more aggressive. Inflation data is expected to show prices rise 0.4% in January, up 7.2% from a year ago, the highest in nearly 40 years.
The reporting season will also continue today. Data from Pfizer, Harley-Davidson, Lyft, Chipotle, and Yum China are expected.
Premarket
Peloton shares fell 12.8% in premarket trading after the company said it would cut 2,800 jobs as part of a restructuring that would see CEO John Foley step down to take over as executive chairman. The report for the 4th quarter is also expected today after the market closes. Note that yesterday the shares rose by 20.9% after reports that the company could be taken over in the near future. Also in premarket trading, Spirit Airlines shares fell 1.32% after announcing that the company would merge with Frontier in a $6.6 billion deal. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, lost 2.9%, while Twitter, Match Group, and Netflix sank about 2%.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500
Today we can see another drawdown to $4,449, which will lead to an increase in demand and an attempt by index buyers to turn the market in their direction in order to break through $4,536, which they failed to do last Friday. This will help to reach $4,598. A break of this range will open a direct path to $4,665 and $4,722. If there is no one below $4,449, the pressure can return very quickly. In this case, we will surely see a drop to $4,378.
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