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The situation around Bitcoin has not changed significantly over the past day. It continues to move within a narrow range of $42k–$44k, and the market expects to break out of it soon. But despite the local lull, in the broader perspective, there is a divergence between Bitcoin and stock indices.
IntoTheBlock experts note a decrease in the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to 0.45. Codependency began to fall as the cryptocurrency recovered above $35k. This is good news, as it confirms the assumption that BTC began to correlate with stock indices due to a difficult market situation.
Due to the formation of a local bottom at $32k and a gradual increase in price to current levels, the cryptocurrency begins to get rid of dependence on classical instruments. This is positive news for the digital asset market as a separate sector of the global economy. In addition, the drop in the level of dependence indicates an increase in investment in crypto assets, as well as a gradual improvement in the situation on the digital coin market.
Another feature that contributed to the decrease in the correlation was the macroeconomic situation and the policy of the Fed. Investors are pursuing capital saving tactics, and BTC is an important tool in this process. Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz, also believes that the main cryptocurrency, along with gold, is an effective risk hedging tool.
The increase in volatility during the corrective cycle in winter 2021 was also a reason for investor caution and strengthened the correlation between BTC and SPX/NASDAQ. However, as the level of fluctuations decreased and the price recovered, the cryptocurrency became more independent. Bloomberg analysts noticed that in 2022, the volatility of Bitcoin is less than that of the NASDAQ index.
This indicates the stabilization of investment flows in Bitcoin products, the active growth of the audience, and its maturity.
It is likely that the correlation with trade indices will increase as the Fed tightens its monetary policy. As the Fed plans to repeatedly raise rates this year, risky assets like cryptocurrencies and the stock market will set another codependency record more than once.
In the local perspective, a decrease in the correlation indicates interest in BTC as a separate financial instrument or a risk hedging tool.
Meanwhile, in technical terms, the main cryptocurrency has not moved off the ground. The asset continues to fluctuate near the important $43k–$45k resistance zone, and only a break of this range will launch a full-fledged upward movement. Buying activity remains at a high level, but a hefty selling shelf in the $44.2k–$44.5k region is preventing BTC/USD from moving further up.
The on-chain activity of Bitcoin also raises questions. The number of unique addresses in the asset network remains around 900K and cannot be fixed above this mark. This indicates a local peak of buying activity, which is clearly not enough to complete the formation of the "head and shoulders" pattern.
The balance of BTC coins on the exchange also began to acquire an upward trend, which indicates a decrease in demand for cryptocurrency. According to Coinmetrics data, Ethereum is more popular than BTC among large investors at the beginning of 2022. Given the on-chain factors, Bitcoin needs to add in buying activity for further upward movement.
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