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According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday performed a rebound from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3181), a reversal in favor of the US currency and a fall to the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.3071), from which it began its last growth segment. The consolidation of quotes below the level of 1.3071 will significantly increase the probability of a new fall of the British dollar in the direction of the level of 1.2980. Or much lower. Geopolitical news continues to significantly worsen the mood of bulls, but it increases for the bears. And there is no good news from Ukraine right now. There are serious fears that the entire conflict will drag on for many months or even years. There is no progress in the negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. At the same time, US inflation continues to break all records, and traders probably believe that this means a higher increase in the Fed's interest rate by the end of 2022. How to resist inflation with rising oil and gas prices in America I do not know.
Just as they do not know in the European Union. And oil and gas prices now depend on the development of the situation in Ukraine and on sanctions for the Russian oil and gas industry. It is no secret that America has already refused to buy oil and gas in Russia, although the share of imports from this country to the United States was small. Nevertheless, both the European Union and the United Kingdom are considering such measures. But they are going to act smoothly. Washington is currently negotiating with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to increase production and sales to the international market. We are even talking about lifting sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, just to replace Russian oil with analogs. However, it will take a long time anyway. And during this time, oil can grow up to $ 200 per barrel. In the UK, a report on GDP and industrial production was released today. Both reports turned out to be better than traders' expectations, but, as we can see, the British started falling yesterday and continues it today, despite the statistics.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and performed a fall to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3044). The rebound from this level, combined with the bullish divergence of the MACD indicator, may allow us to count on some growth of the pair in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.3274). Fixing at 1.3044 will increase the probability of further falling towards the next Fibo level of 1.2674.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has changed dramatically again over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts increased in the hands of speculators by 7,128, and the number of short contracts increased by 2,046. Thus, the general mood of the major players has become more "bullish", but at the same time, in the category of speculators, there is now equality in the number of long and short contracts. Thus, I conclude that the mood is now more neutral than "bearish" or "bullish". But even this does not matter much, since geopolitical factors can continue to have a very big impact on the British rate. Already it turns out that the mood is "neutral", and the pound is falling.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - change in GDP (07:00 UTC).
UK - change in industrial production (07:00 UTC).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (15:00 UTC).
On Friday, all the planned reports had already been released in the UK, and they did not have any effect on the mood of traders. The same will happen with the US consumer sentiment index. Only the level of 1.3044 keeps the British from falling again.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
Yesterday I recommended selling the British dollar with targets of 1.3071 and 1.3044 if the rebound from the level of 1.3181 is completed. Both goals have been achieved. New sales of the British dollar at the close under the level of 1.3044 with targets of 1.2980 and 1.2895. I do not recommend buying a pound today, since all factors remain in favor of the dollar.
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