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In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.0518 level and recommended making decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The expected downward movement to the 1.0518 area and the breakdown of this level, followed by consolidation below, led to a signal to open short positions in continuation of yesterday's bearish rally, observed after an unsuccessful attempt to cling to weekly highs. As a result, the downward movement amounted to about 30 points, after which the bulls became more active and began actively buying off annual lows. A return to 1.0518 and a reverse test of this level from top to bottom became a good buy signal, which led to an upward movement to the 1.0563 area. A false breakdown in this range and a sell signal, and as a result - a drop of 20 points. And what were the entry points for the pound this morning?
To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
For the second half of the day, the technical picture has changed slightly, because we are waiting for data on the unemployment rate and changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States. If the data turns out to be better than economists' forecasts, then the demand for the US dollar will return, and in this case, the bulls will need to make every effort to protect the nearest support of 1.0534. The formation of a false breakdown there will give a good entry point into long positions in the expectation of a return of the initiative by buyers with a subsequent breakdown of 1.0595. Going beyond this range will happen only in the case of rather weak growth in the number of jobs. A breakout and a top-down test of 1.0595 form a new signal to enter long positions, strengthening buyers and opening up the opportunity for further growth of EUR/USD to the area of 1.0638, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.0691 area. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.0534, and there are moving averages playing on the side of the bulls, the optimal scenario for buying would be a false breakdown near this year's low of 1.0473, which we fell just a couple of points short of today. I advise you to open long positions on the euro immediately for a rebound only from 1.0426, or even lower - around 1.0394 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points inside the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers once again failed to offer anything in the area of annual lows, which suggests the continuation of the upward correction of the euro. However, a lot depends on the report on the US labor market, which can be pretty nerve-wracking. The optimal scenario for opening short positions will be the formation of a false breakdown around 1.0595, and strong data on the US labor market will complement the sell signal. This will lead to pressure on the pair to reduce the new support of 1.0534, formed following the results of morning trading. A breakdown and consolidation below 1.0534, together with a reverse test from the bottom up, will give an excellent signal to sell the euro, which will lead to the demolition of several bulls' stop orders and to the return of a bearish trend with the prospect of updating 1.0473, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.0426 area, but such a scenario is possible only after the complete capitulation of euro buyers. If EUR/USD rises during the US session and there are no bears at 1.0595, serious problems will begin. In this case, I expect a sharper upward jerk. The optimal scenario will be short positions when forming a false breakdown in the area of 1.0638. You can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.0691, or even higher - around 1.0736 with the aim of a downward correction of 25-30 points.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 19 recorded a sharp increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. Recent statements by representatives of central banks have led to a new active sale of risky assets, as it became obvious to everyone that serious problems in the economies of developed countries cannot be avoided this year. And although the president of the European Central Bank noted in her speeches that the regulator plans to fully complete the bond purchase program by the end of the second quarter of this year, hinting at a rate hike in early autumn, this was not enough to support the euro. The more aggressive policy of the Federal Reserve System turned out to be not as aggressive as many expected, which slightly weakened the demand for the US dollar and returned the market to equilibrium. Another problem is the threat of another economic paralysis due to strict quarantine restrictions in China against the background of a new wave of COVID-19, which has already led to a large-scale disruption in the supply chains of European and Asian countries. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 221,645 to the level of 221,003, while short non-commercial positions increased sharply - from the level of 182,585 to the level of 189,702. It is worth noting that the decline of the euro makes it more attractive to investors, so the minimum closure of long positions is not surprising. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position decreased and amounted to 34,055 against 39,060. The weekly closing price collapsed and amounted to 1.0814 against 1.0855.
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