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Hi, dear traders! According to the H1 chart, the pound sterling has bounced off 1.2315 downwards on Friday and early on Monday. Over the past 5 days, the pair tested this level four times, only to retrace towards the Fibo level of 523.6% (1.2146). This indicates that bearish traders are not ready for new sell-offs and that bulls have the initiative. However, bullish activity has been rather weak, and the pair continues to move near 1.2315. There are no events in the UK, and the US pending home sales index is unlikely to influence traders. Last week, GBP/USD ignored more important events.
The pair would likely leave the sideways range of 1.2146-1.2315 only when either traders decide to act decisively or if they react to an important event. The only notable events on this week's economic calendar are statements by Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Jerome Powell. However, Lagarde and Powell both spoke last week, and it did not resume the trend. The same could happen this week, unless there is an important statement by Andrew Bailey regarding interest rate hikes at the next BoE meeting. The policy of both the ECB and the Fed is clear for market players.
According to the H4 chart, GBP/USD reversed downwards and fell to the retracement level of 127.2% (1.2250) after forming a bearish CCI divergence. If the pair settles below this level, it could then continue to slide down towards 1.1980, where it reversed upwards earlier. The descending trend channel indicates that trader sentiment is bearish. GBP/USD could only rise significantly after it closes above the trend line.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
Non-commercial traders became slightly more bullish last week. Traders closed 873 Long positions and 3,222 Short positions. Market players remain bearish on GBP/USD, and Long positions continue to greatly outnumber Short ones. Major players continue to decrease their exposure to GBP, and their sentiment has remained unchanged recently. GBP/USD could continue to fall in the next several weeks, despite the gap between Long and Short positions potentially indicating a trend reversal. At this point, the news and data releases are more important for market players, and they do not give support to the pound sterling.
US and UK economic calendar:US - Durable Goods Orders (12-30 UTC).US - Pending Home Sales (14-00 UTC).There are no events in the UK today, and US data releases are unlikely to influence traders.
Outlook for GBP/USD:Traders are recommended to open short positions if GBP/USD bounces off 1.2315 on the H1 chart, with 1.2146 being the target. Long positions can be opened if the pair settles above the trend line on the H4 chart, targeting 1.2674.
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